http://chud.com/nextraimages/tomkat.jpgSo here we are again. Hot.

MOST INTERESTING FILM OF THE WEEK

Look, I’m not interested in guessing on this one; I want to proselytize. So I’m going to say this: Hot Fuzz will make $100 million dollars this weekend. Sure, it’s only on 700 screen, which barely counts as a wide release, but this shit is awesome and deserves the coins (hell, Borat made almost $30 million on 800, so why not $100 million other than it being literally impossible). It is, as of this juncture, the best film I’ve seen all year, and deserves to rock the box. If it’s playing near you, go fucking see it. You will be thoroughly entertained. Unfortunately, smart comedies are something of a hard sell in this country these days, and people may think they’re getting a Zucker film with explosions and leave disappointed. Still, this shit is so good it deserves to be seen by whomever, so, fuck it, if you got a screen playing it within driving distance (and I live in LA, so anything within two hours is driving distance) get a car full of people (preferably live ones) and expose them to it.

Realistically, a big win would be $5 million. And I think that’s possible even though the tracking is low, because the fanbase is rabid for Shaun, which opened to $3 million and change. If they can get this to $20 million, then that’s huge, as the film is already a huge success internationally. Perhaps Wright and Co. should work with Hugh Grant next time or some shit for better stateside grosses. Though Prince Barin 4life!

LIMTED RELEASES

Besides Hot Fuzz, Francis Veber’s The Valet hits 6 screens. Veber did The Dinner Game and The Closet, so he knows how to make innocuous French comedies. If this finds an audience, it may be playing through the summer. And if my uncle had wheels, I’d ride his ass to the hardware store. The Tripper, a low budget horror film, hits 50 screens. It was directed by David Arquette and features his wife and Paul Reubens. Likely, this is the definition of a vanity project, but, to be sure, someone has to see it. Supposedly, it’s a slasher film with some gratuitous nudity. Any takers?

THE WEEKEND

Besides Hot Fuzz and its astronomical take, there are three going wide: Vacancy, In the Land of Women and Fracture. Ryan Gosling should become a star in the next five years, and he is that fucking good (Half Nelson, for all its faults, is a movie that works solely because of his phenomenal performance). But it’s hard to say how audiences will react to Hopkins taking another turn around the Lecter-esque material. They flat-out rejected Instinct, but the hook here looks better than that of Perfect Stranger. Strange that April is the mystery season this year. Perhaps that trend will continue.

I love Adam Brody in a non-gay way (so far), but I don’t think he’s cleared himself of TV enough to open In the Land of Women, for which he is the main draw. Will women go, will women care? I suspect the reviews will be less than kind (going by Jeremy’s take), and Meg Ryan is not really part of the equation. Vacancy is a thriller with two stars who’ve never really done this sort of thriller before, and I think that people are suspicious of names (such as they are) top billing something like this. It’s got a pretty good trailer, all things. Could be a spoiler, could do $20 million. But I’m betting against.

And here we are, two weeks before the summer season starts, and studios at this point are trying to release questionable titles hoping to take advantage of the slow season for some quick bucks, and possibly get rid of some titles they’re embarrassed about. Disturbia hit $22 million and change last week, and Blades only fell 39%. Word of mouth was fairly good on Disturbia, though the market is now flooded with thrillers. Who lives, who dies? I feel like the family films will hold best. My guesses are here, but the only thing I feel sure of is that Blades of Glory will cross the century mark.

THE PREDIX

1. Fracture – 15 milion
2. Disturbia – 14 million
3. Vacancy – 11 million
4. Blades of Glory – 8 million
5. Meet the Robinsons – 7 million
6. In the Land of Women – 6 million
7. Hot Fuzz – 5.5 million
8. Perfect Stranger – 4.8 million
9. Are We Done Yet? – 4.7 million
10. Wild Hogs – 3.2 million

This week, Micah and Dan are getting in on the forecasting fun. Here are their bold/italic predictions.

Micah’s take:

1. Fracture – $17 million
2. In the Land of Women – $13 million
3. Disturbia – $10 million
4. Vacancy – $8 million
5. Blades of Glory – $6 million
6. Perfect Stranger – $5.5 million
7. Meet the Robinsons – $5.5 million
8. Hot Fuzz – $4.5 million
9. Are We Done Yet? – $4 million
10. Wild Hogs – $3 million

Dan’s Take:

1. Fracture – $17.5 million
2. Disturbia – $14 million
3. In the Land of Women - $13.5 million
4. Blades of Glory – $11 million
5. Meet the Robinsons – $10 million
6. Vacancy – $9 million
7. Perfect Stranger – $6 million
8. Hot Fuzz – $4.5 million
9. Are We Done Yet? – $4 million
10. 300 – $3.5 million