What’s funny is that as Hollywood falls into one of its weaker periods of the year, we’re flooded with some fascinating VOD and limited release titles. Super, Rubber, Hobo with a Shotgun, Jackass 3.5 all hit this weekend.

HALF AND HALF’S

The King’s Speech comes out in the PG-13 cut this weekend. It will be interesting to see if that does any business at all. The film is at $135 domestic, I don’t think this is enough to get another $15 Million, though – hey – don’t discount the Weinsteins. I think the best it gets to is another $5 Million at most. Is this worth that? A director friend told me prints cost $30,000 to make and are usually sold to collectors for less than five hundred. Perhaps they’re just changing out reels on this one, since the change is so small. Or perhaps he was given a stock quote. But you can see why the studios would be happy to move to digital projection.

Hop is a kids movie that doesn’t look to appeal to someone like me but I like James Marsden. I like him as a performer, and I hope he does get The Three Stooges at the end of the day. I’m surprised the film isn’t 3-D. Russell Brand has two movies coming out in April a week apart. This would be more damning if he starred in both (as more than a voice performer, if you follow). But Arthur should have been a slam dunk. I hear it isn’t. But Hop, kids, Rango‘s old, that gets you an opening.

Insidious is a film by the guys who did Saw. I like that it has Barbara Hershey in it. But this is the perfect sort of off-season time to release a scary movie. You get an opening, and though they’ve got some B+ listers (Patrick Wilson is… a good actor, not a draw), the film is likely done on a budget. Is a $20-$30 grand total good enough? It should have been. I don’t think I’d pay to see either of these films. This film has two weeks until Scream 4. But horror dies quickly

The best thing to see is Source Code. I caught this a while back, and though I know it’s slightly a cheater, I rather enjoyed myself. It’s not Hitchcock-tight, but what is these days? It’s also one of those films that may look like it has drawbacks, but everything you think you might hate about the film actually works to its advantage. I liked the cast, it’s a fun ride. Frankly, I don’t expect films like this to do well, so I’m pleasantly surprised that it’s tracking as well as it is.

April’s always a weird month. It’s a breather. And Universal – between Hop, Your Highness and Hanna (which is Focus) – has three films going wide. That doesn’t speak well to their faith in any of these films, especially with Fast Five coming from Uni on 4/29. April also makes me wonder about Scream 4, which has two to three weeks to make its money. I guess they know it’s an opening weekend picture – it is a horror film and a sequel. This month should be about Thor positioning itself to make piles of cash. Again, like most things, I’m skeptical.

LET’S GET DOWN TO PREDICTIONS

Hop takes the weekend. The other big question is how bad Sucker Punch takes it in the shorts on its second weekend. Word of mouth didn’t seem to kick in, though I know some dug it.

1. Hop – 20.7 Million

2. Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 – $12.3 Million

3. Source Code - $12 Million

4. Insidious – $11.3 Million

5. Limitless- $10.5 Million

If Sucker Punch laps Limitless I’d be surprised. I suspect SP will do around $7 Million. Maybe more. But I doubt too much more. See you Sunday.