I was wondering why someone would make a Topher Grace leading-man comedy in 2011. Turns out they made it in 2007. Ouch.


I could be wrong, but the numbers underestimated 300, so I feel that with a similar launch date (also the same for Alice in Wonderland) we could see a huge surge for Rango beyond initial expectations. The tracking is not insane, but also – as an animated film – those numbers are  often lower for the kids’ films. Gnomeo ended up doing better than expected, and will likely be a strong performer – but kids’ movies have a tendency now to hit much higher numbers with the 3-D. Rango is blessedly 2-D, which may help or hurt at the end of the day. Opening weekend for How to Train your Dragon opened to $43 Million, but this has Johnny Depp. I’m going $50 Million plus.

The Green Zone may have misfired last year, but I wouldn’t underrate Matt Damon, I think that film had the stink of “modern war film” going against it. This is more an “interesting premise” film, and something of a romantic drama, so if it can be the adult date film of the month they’re going to do all right. Part of this seems to be payoff from the Bourne franchise, especially for the writer/director George Nolfi, who helped script/fix the final film in the franchise. This should open more than Green Zone. Damon’s mostly Teflon.

Beastly has been in a can for a while now. It was supposed to come out last year. Word is that Alex Pettyfer is poison with the junket circuit, and between this and I Am Number Four, he’s got no fans in the press nor has he caught on as an actor. I can’t say I had any troubles with him, but I get it, and his attitude means that between these two films that he’s likely left himself on the curb by his own making. What is it  worth to win the world? Perhaps he’ll be happier away from the Hollywood star system, and it’s not like he’ so damanged the right role or whatever couldn’t bring him back – he’s young, and he may not have been ready for the pressure. But he’s partly done. He’s in Now, by Andrew Niccol. If that doesn’t hit, say good night for a while.

Take Me Home Tonight was made in 2007. That’s a can to be in. I’m sure the film isn’t that bad (supposedly it was shelved because of coke use in the film), but it was not be good enough to get over whatever put it away. But – like Beastly – this is being let go to the extent that they hope they can make a quick buck, but the hopes of this doing Superbad business are non-existent. It does explain the presence of Dan Fogler, who was given a push about four years ago, though it points out that it girls (like Teresa Palmer) have a couple year shelf life if they are attractive enough.

This March doesn’t have the same strengths of the last couple years of this season. Gore Verbinski may be coming off the Pirates trilogy, but this is an animated film, so it doesn’t have the same imprimatur. Battle: Los Angeles should open huge, but… Reruns?


So there’s that.

1.      Rango – $55 Million

2.      The Adjustment Bureau – $14.5 Million

3.      Gnomeo and Juliet – $8 Million

4.      Take me Home to Night – $6.6 Million

5.       Hall Pass – $6.2 Million

Yeah, I think Hall Pass might edge out Beastly. I also think Rango could hit $70. Wanna dance? Check me on Sunday.