Let me put on my sweat pants and Josie and the Pussycats sweatshirt, cause it’s time to get cozy.
TIME TO GET CAUGHT UP ON YOUR IBSEN
The impossible true story of a horse winning races looks to be the front runner this weekend. Secretariat is going for the family friendly, nothing offensive, good Christian values approach at the box office. As such, the film doesn’t have to be an out of the gate smash to be considered successful, here it’s about long play. I hope to never see this film.
Life as We Know It looks to be as generic as its title. Though Knocked Up may have confused some thinking that people don’t mind movies about babies and pregnancies, part of the appeal of Knocked Up is that Seth Rogen is able to have a relationship with Katherine Heigl, who would normally be considered above his station. Here, there’s the accidental bringing together of a couple to deal with a baby, but it deals with them falling on love because they take responsibility together over someone else’s kid. Date movies with babies are a loaded weapon. But more than that the bloom is off of Katherine Heigl’s rose as a box office star, and people seem to be actively turning on her. But hey, it’s a light weekend.
Wes Craven had a name in horror, but he’s a bit out to pasture these days. After Red Eye it seemed like he still had some chops, but My Soul to Take is a 3-D effort that has been sitting around for almost a year, and as I understand was post-converted to 3-D. But it’s a little late for that. That it’s a horror picture means that it doesn’t necessarily stink if it’s not screened for critics, but it’s never a good sign.
The big question of the weekend is: How well will The Social Network hold? Some thought I was being harsh on the movie’s opening, but that’s because it’s unknown if the film is front-loaded at all. The film needs to drop less than 40%, which will get it over $40 Million. But if anything kills the picture cold come Oscars, it’s going to be if the film didn’t do that well. If the picture finds a mainstream audience (read: does over $100 Million) it gives it more street credibility. Basically the Oscars might give you Best Picture if you didn’t do that awesome, but were about something socially relevant, like racism or war. This, though, is gunning for Oscar love. David Fincher’s in a good place to get his gold if he can work the room – even if True Grit comes on like a bolt of lightning, the people most likely to win are either Matt Damon, Josh Brolin or young Hailee Steinfield over the Coen brothers and Jeff Bridges, who have fresh trophies. It would be something to see Bridges win back-to-backers, but it’s all about how things shake out. Regardless of how good it is, The King’s Speech won’t be a director’s picture. So at this juncture, other competition – say Darren Aronofsky or Christopher Nolan – aren’t as well positioned. But there are a lot of unknowns right now.
WE DID THE MASH, THE PREDICTIONS MASH
For what should be a slightly off weekend, the numbers are going to be solid for the top couple of films, so there’s that. Secretariat is likely marketed well enough to take the weekend, but nothing looks to break $20 Million, while only My Soul to Take of the new pictures will have problems getting over $10 Million.
We ho life:
1. Secretariat - $17.5 Million
2. The Social Network - $16.8 Million
3. Life as We Know It - $14.3 Million
4. My Soul to Take – $7.7 Million
5. The Town – $6.9 Million
The Owl Movie could jump in there, cause it’s for kids. The Social Network – if Sony did their math – needs a strong hold so there may be some jockeying for the number one slot if it’s close. And then more of the same come Sunday.