DELLAMORTE'S BOX OFFICE WRAP UP 6/25/10

This just in: The end of the world (as we know it). Temperature: average.

I thought Toy Story 3 might fall a little less as the franchise is so beloved, but in that way it’s behaving more like a sequel. Next weekend is interesting math because it might lose some Imax/3-D screens to The Last Airbender, and yet it’s also a holiday weekend. Which is to say it could end next weekend over $300 or might fall a bit short. But if it isn’t over $300 next weekend then $400 is out of the question. Most things seem to be under-performing the expectations brought on by Avatar and Alice in Wonderland – Imax and 3-D might be inflating grosses, it’s hard to know how much in the face of raised ticket prices, high unemployment, etc.

Tom Cruise has been a movie star for 25 years, where Adam Sandler has been a movie star for about fifteen. Sandler has never really offered the public much of a glimpse into his personal life, and though he probably went through a coke and whore phase – and maybe still does – he’s never gone off the reservation, and his audience knows what to expect when he makes a movie like Grown Ups. Whereas Tom Cruise is happy to do Les Grossman stuff, and Fox’s marketing on Knight and Day was bizarre to say the least. Sandler’s poor reviews will be written off by his fanbase – as he’s consistently been getting terrible reviews – so it’s possible the film will get to $100 and maybe just over, but his base may be front loaded. With the holiday weekend Grown Ups should be able to clear that hurdle. Anything past $120 would surprise me, though I thought it might be a monster.

Some people were talking about Tom Cruise not being on Mission: Impossible 4 because of this less than awesome Knight gross. Since Cruise controls the material, it would only be if he were offered a sweetheart of a package, which would mean more money, and Cruise would probably be in it anyway. Knight might have better legs than The A-Team, but it’s not going to crack a hundred.

The Karate Kid probably should have come out in March, but Alice in Wonderland. It’s always easy to second guess that stuff. Unfortunately, it’s facing a barrage of children’s and young adult films hitting the market. The film seemed in a position to hit $200 Million but that’s gone away. Still, everyone should be happy with it, especially if it plays okay internationally. Whereas The A-Team is going to have to make due with an around $80 Million total.

Get Him to the Greek will get over $60 Million, but it’s going to start bleeding screens – the only positive is that everything is top loaded right now at the box, so Killers, Jonah Hex, Shrek and Prince of Persia are ready to go, the only question is what are the studios trying to milk their last dimes out of? Warners won’t be able to hold Jonah for shit, so that’s a goner, but Disney might try and save some Persia screens, and Killers was expensive.  Such means Greek should bleed out a lot come Despicable Me, but that’s long enough to get over $60.

Next weekend looks bad. I don’t think critics have screened The Last Airbender, which is not a good sign, but then… everything else about that picture. Then we get Predators, which also won’t be in front of a number of online critics, though may screen for press. Then Inception, which if you’d heard what I’ve heard about it… I’m not the sort of person who says “I can’t wait to see” something, but this is the rare exception.