Not going to lie, I twitter awesome.


I think we’re in the midst of a paradigm shift in how people consume movies. This could partly be the internet, could be netflix,and  has a lot to do with the economy. Harry Potter VI could be a crowd pleaser. Could play long. But we’re also dealing with the fifth sequel or, – if you will – the sixth in a eight part series. That’s one more than the Police Academy franchise. Since we’re in the middle, there’s often a sag. Lord of the Rings grossed more with each successive film, but some people may have waited for DVD to watch the first film. The lowest grossing of the Star Wars prequels was the middle film.

Harry Potter Six grossed $58 million on its opening day. This could be a sign of a kick-ass weekend, or that the series has such defined fans that they show up immediately upon release. I would argue there’s a lot of the latter. We’re still a film away from the final chapter. Arguably the franchise’s batting average is low in terms of quality, but the franchise has gotten stronger as its gone along. It’d be easy to pick on Chris Columbus for the first two films, but they also are some of the weakest books of the franchise, and it’s doing a lot of legwork. There’s at least one twitterer who suggested this new film is the start of director’s David Yates’s trilogy. That would be good as the franchise, such as it is, has long rested on the relative quality and fandom of the books. From my experience, the films don’t work as a cohesive whole.

That does nothing to deny the possibilities of Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. The question this film asks is if it will transcend the last couple films, which have done around $300, or even the first film, which did $320-ish. Likely it can exceed these, partly because the summer is almost over and could keep playing. But the film likely does not speak to outsiders, and it’s not like it’s the last episode. I would bet against this being a super break-out. But quality may lead people back.


Harry will take the weekend. If the film is to challenge Transformers 2 as the film of the summer, it’s going to need to double its opening day to get close to $200 (or more) for the five day. I don’t think that’s going to happen, though. Still, even with the $58 lead in, I think $200 is out of reach.

1. Harry Potter 6 – $86.5 Million
2. Ice Age 3 – $17.5 Million
3. Transformers 2 – $14 Million
4. Bruno – $11 Million
5. Public Enemies – $9 Million

If The Proposal laps Public Enemies, I wouldn’t be surprised. See you Sunday.