You have to figure the Wayans are a little annoyed about how the Movie title was taken from them. Yeah, they did the first two Scary Movies, and then the franchise was handed to a Zucker for 3 and 4, and then you’ve got those guys who made Date, Epic and Disaster Movie. But they’re new one is titled Dance Flick, which is the same thing but different. Great.
Wow, you’ve got three pictures opening wide this weekend: Terminator 4, Night at the Museum 2, and Dance Flick, which is a semu-sequel in its own way. We are still in the middle of the strike season, as all these films were done because of and during the strike.
The funny thing is that I think Museum 2 is a franchise-ender, but I probably would have said the same thing about Shrek 2 after seeing it. This one is going to open well, but I think enthusiasm might wain a bit, and I’m sure that Ben Stiller will keep doing these if they pay him, but I don’t think he’s excited about that prospect. The film is supposedly even worse than the first, which I got why it made money, but wasn’t all that good. This is Lennon and Garant writing rushed, so that means – with the strike and all – they either smuggled more stuff in or wrote a first draft. There’s also a lot of talented people involved in this, including (on the more random tip) Christopher Guest, Amy Adams, Bill Hader, Ricky Gervais, Craig Robinson, and Mindy Kahling. It’s good when talented people get paid. My outside view is that this film is a juggernaut.
Terminator Salvation. Well, that’s been hashed out. Either it’s stupid summer fun, or it’s stupid summer dreck. Warner Brothers is trying to relaunch the franchise again, but it sounds like a lot of the expenses of the first WB Terminator have been resolved. This should open well, much bigger than one might suspect from the mixed reviews the Internet has provided. And I think there’s a lot of people who are now in to Christian Bale for life. I wonder how many tattoos there are out there with a Bale likeness.
Dance Flick is probably the most underrated in terms of potential. I bet this thing plays, though I hear it is rather terrible. IT HAS CHRIS ELLIOT! These pipes are clean! Scary Movie 4 opened over $40 (and couldn’t clear $100), but the Sietzer/Friedberg series of films have proffered diminishing returns for studios and audiences alike (Disaster Movie looked like “Hey, remember that joke in the trailer of that movie that came out this summer? We’ve added farting!”) There’s not a lot of names with this one (Amy Sedaris? David Allen Grier and Kim Wayans?) but there are at least six Wayanses in the cast. Six! I still think this has a shot of outperforming Star Trek.
U GOT THE PREDICTIONS. U MUST HAVE TOOK A WHOLE HOUR JUST TO MAKE UP YOUR PREDICTIONS
Terminator 4 and Night at the Museum should be close. As should Angels and Demons, Star Trek and Dance Flick. T4 has a day lead on the two openers. It did $3 million for the midnights, and did $13 Million on Thursday. What will the three/four day be? My guess is over $100. But nipping at its heels should be Night, which is going to open, and do great Saturday-Sunday business. My guess is both will be over the hundred mark by the end of Monday. Star Trek lapped Angels on Wednesday, but weekdays and weekends are different beasts. That said, I’m probably going high on Museum, simply because kids films don’t always track accurately, I’m also going high on Dance Flick. If it only gets to $8 Million for the three day, I’ve underestimated the American public, and their ability to sniff poo out.
Let’s do it for the three day:
1. Night at the Museum 2 - $85 Million
2 Terminator: The Return of the Terminator - $70 Million
3. Star Trek – $26.8 Million
4. Dance Flick – $20.5 Million
5. Angels and Demons - $20 Million
And then either Sunday or Monday I’ll get busy typing, or get busy dying.