As a writer, I often find myself having conversations with people minutes or hours after the conversations ended. I know that you could replace writer with insane person.
THE ABSENCE OF POTTER MALICE
This weekend, for the Turkey day lead up, we have two films that should be profitable, but also partly profitable in the wake of Harry Potter‘s move to summer. There are a couple of rumored reasons why Potter moved, one is that because of the writer’s strike (remember that?) the 2009 slate is weak, and being a finished movie might lead to stringer numbers. Another theory is that because The Dark Knight played so well, there’s no need for Warner’s to have a strong winter. The other is that the film test screened to troubling results, and that reshoots would require the extra time. You could probably apply these theories to J.J. Abrams’ Star Trek.
Now we have two films that could the business that Potter might have done in a weekend. Twilight has become a phenomenon, and the film should do exceedingly well, especially considering its budget. Bolt, well Bolt is a very strange film in that it was originally born of Chris Sanders’ imagination, and was reshuffled when Pixar took over Disney. From all evidence, other than the gimmickry of 3-D it looks to be a rather standard Disney latter day production. Both should do well, though. Because that’s all there is, and people want to go to movies.
That though, isn’t giving credit to the Twilight fans, who will likely show up in legion (as they already are). Summit has themselves a franchise in the making, and for that they can suffer the failure of a film like Sex Drive, though they will also have to (Jack) shoulder the not so Hidden costs of The Brothers Bloom, which may find an audience, but likely will not because the studio does not seem to have the marketing muscle for hard sells (see: Sex Drive). but both should have a boost from the extended weekend next, which may mean that I go MIA for next Thursday. as that is likely the case, expect Australia to open to a thud and a peter, and Four Christmases to do a bit better than expected, while Transporter 3 may do just okay for such a title. It was directed by a Megaton, after all.
DO WHAT YOU PREDICT NOW, ELECTRIC PREDICTIONS NOW
Twilight. That shit’s big. How big? I’m going to say over $60. Bolt‘s closer to $30, while Quantum, Madagascar and Role Models keep swinging, and boys always work it out.
1. Twilight - $64.7 Million
2. Bolt – $35 Million
3. Quantum of Solace - $34.7 Million
4. Madagascar 2 – $23 Million
5. Role Models – $7.7 Million
And then Sunday we’ll make some tea.