Here’s three things you have to remember with the Screen Actors Guild Awards: 1) the actors comprise the biggest bloc of AMPAS voters, 2) they accurately predicted Crash‘s upset of Brokeback Mountain, and 3) they inaccurately predicted Bobby‘s Best Picture nomination. Oh, and one more thing to consider: they went for Little Miss Sunshine over The Departed.
So maybe it’s not time to panic over Hairspray‘s shot at a woefully undeserved Best Picture nomination. However, being a glass-half-empty-and-shit-in kind of guy, I’m not ready to declare this state of awards emergency over just yet – even though David Poland, who’s been lobbying on behalf of Hairspray since the summer, seems unmoved by the film’s surprise triumph over Sweeney Todd (he’s probably got a point re: John Travolta’s failure to snag a Best Supporting Actor slot).
And what to make of 3:10 to Yuma picking up a Best Ensemble nomination over a bevy of presumed frontrunners like Juno, Michael Clayton and, most shockingly of all, Atonement, which was shut out completely (i.e. no individual honors for James McAvoy and Keira Knightley)? I’ve been hearing for a while now that the James Mangold-directed western is a huge favorite with the actors, but, given the variety of high quality alternatives this year, I didn’t think it had a shot at pulling a Fugitive. Guess I was wrong.
That said, I don’t think Atonement is remotely out of the Best Picture, Actor or Actress race just yet, nor am I convinced that Into the Wild is suddenly a frontrunner again despite its four major nominations for Emile Hirsch, Catherine Keener, Hal Holbrook and Ensemble (but this could change soon if the DGA nominates Penn). Basically, I don’t think any of these categories are locked just yet (as they were at this time last year); there’s still time for folks like Laura Linney and Philip Seymour Hoffman to acquire some momentum before the Academy ballots go out. And there’s absolutely time for voters to come to their senses and snub the fuck out of Hairspray.
Here’s the full list of nominees (film only):
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
GEORGE CLOONEY – Michael Clayton
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS – There Will Be Blood
RYAN GOSLING – Lars And The Real Girl
EMILE HIRSCH – Into The Wild
VIGGO MORTENSEN – Eastern Promises
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
CATE BLANCHETT – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
JULIE CHRISTIE – Away From Her
MARION COTILLARD – La Vie En Rose
ANGELINA JOLIE – A Mighty Heart
ELLEN PAGE – Juno
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
CASEY AFFLECK – Assassination of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
JAVIER BARDEM – No Country For Old Men
HAL HOLBROOK – Into The Wild
TOMMY LEE JONES – No Country For Old Men
TOM WILKINSON – Michael Clayton
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
CATE BLANCHETT – I’m Not There
RUBY DEE – American Gangster
CATHERINE KEENER – Into The Wild
AMY RYAN – Gone Baby Gone
TILDA SWINTON – Michael Clayton
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
3:10 to Yuma
CUBA GOODING, JR.
Into the Wild
MARCIA GAY HARDEN
No Country for Old Men
TOMMY LEE JONES