CHUD’S BOX OFFICE WRAP UP 6/12/11

Avg. CHUD Prediction Difference: +/- $1.98m

A lot of people in the day-to-day Hollywood grind worked very hard to get Super 8 in front of eyeballs last week, as a nervous studio threw a lot of shit at the wall to get something to stick, and those people should be proud of themselves. An opening weekend with $37m blazes no trails and signs no deals, but it’s a big enough to number to spin as “strong” or even “big” with low-balled predictions and a lot of raised eyebrows leading into the weekend. If you take the studio at their word that they spent a mere $25m to market the picture, and that those big ole names on the poster took very reduced salaries and points, then it’s very possible the film will see limited profitiability here in the states, in theaters. The foreign numbers are decent (around $7m) but nothing like some of the other legitimate blockbusters we’ve seen this summer that have pulled in so much foreign coin that their domestic totals barely matter (matey).

The legs on Super 8 should be stronger than something like The Hangover 2 (now the highest-grosser of the year, but slowing faster than its predecessor), but this summer is what it is. $100m shouldn’t be a struggle but what, if anything, it can make beyond that will be more guessable after next weekend. Perhaps it continues acting like District 9 and hits right at $115. That makes some sense as it ultimately an alien movie, has garnered general goodwill, but only really plays to a focused segment of movie people.

On that note, recently it came out that everyone has their shit together for Star Trek 2 and they’re just waiting on JJ to officially sign on and make final script approvals. I get the sense we should hear news that he’s scampering back onto the Enterprise very soon.

55% is not a bad drop of an X-Men film, though that’s not the kind of phenomenal hold that reverses the (possibly exaggerated) impression that it’s an underperformer. It doesn’t seem like it could possibly make even Wolverine numbers, though the drop and the general goodwill suggest the franchise might have reversed some of the Last Stand / Origins baggage. Well see on The Wolverine I suppose.

The Part II‘s, both Hangover and Panda, have changed places again, with the former likely to fall just short of its predecessor stateside, but ultimately even out worldwide. Kung Fu Panda 2 will fall well short of Panda 1 in the states, and it’s hard to imagine it has another $200m in it across the world. Maybe I’m underestimating those international legs, but the Panda franchise is definitely a wringer, not a bloomer.

If anyone should be happy this week, it’s Woody. Midnight in Paris jumped into just under a thousand theaters this week and showed well. He’s getting a nice pattern of making a hit, throwing out two softies, and hitting again: Match Point (23,), Scoop (10m), Cassandra’s Dream (<1m), Vicky Christina Barcelona (23m), Whatever Works (5m), Tall Dark Stranger (3m), and now Midnight in Paris, which could be on its way to 23m if its run doesn’t shrink too fast. The reactions have been almost universally enthusiastic, so I know I’m excited to see it.

Green Lantern comes next weekend to finally kick a god out of the top 10, and send First Class home early. The film itself is an oddity though, as some are projecting confidence and others are just downright convinced that audiences won’t take to the spacey stuff. We’ll talk more about it Friday.

The thread in which you talk about this stuff.