CHUD’S BOX OFFICE WRAP UP 5/13/11

Avg. CHUD Prediction Difference: +/- $3.2m

Thor does what it needed to do, Bridesmaids kicks ass for the ladies as well as comedy-lovers with good taste everywhere, and Priest shits the everything.

It’s unfortunate that Thor is going to suffer so much when Pirates 4 steals its thunder (and its 3D screens) because it’s done pretty strong business for such an ambitious start to a lower-tier character. The hold this weekend was well above 50%. That’s a risky guess to make for most any big movie in its second weekend, something Iron Man 2 didn’t manage last year and Fast Five didn’t even manage last weekend. That said, the legs will more than likely fall out from under it next weekend and it will begin a difficult crawl towards $200m that it may not make, the same going for a $500m worldwide total. There’s always a chance that the film will have a profoundly strong hold and that audiences will detect the apparent shittiness of Pirates 4 (some truly hideous reviews hit this weekend) and stick with the God of Thunder. More likely though, it will quietly start to wrap up and hit something more like $180 domestic when all is said and done. It might be hard to spin it as an out-of-the-park hit for Marvel, but when you’re setting up a larger crossover film with an introduction to a kooky C-list character, no news is good news. What this does indicate though is that the public is still receptive to new heroes, and that Captain America may be in the position to pull an Iron Man, especially if that post-Bin Laden murt energy is still in the air.

Bridesmaids exceeded all expectations, going so far as to nearly double the total of Nikke Finke’s cynical prediction that it wouldn’t do better than $13m. Finke actually staked her job on it, though I doubt she’s doing any real-world packing. Alas, we might want to have her around, just in case another strike breaks out anytime soon. For all her bullshit, it shouldn’t be forgotten how utterly valuable she was during that silliness.

But with the Maids of Brides Kristin Wiig has undoubtedly scored, with a strong opening and great word-of-mouth resulting from the film that she is largely out in front of. Did you see the flick this weekend? Chat it up in the burgening post-release thread right here, where there seems to be a consensus that its an awesome out-of-nowhere hit, if not a truly amazing comedy. I lean towards the more positive end- it’s well made at every level, and one hopes it might spark at least another couple of legitimately smart, Bechdel Test-passing comedies.

Fast Five recovered a bit this weekend, and pulled out a much lower drop than in its second frame, managing to top the only new action film, Priest. The second film from the Legion team, Priest has shit the street quite spectacularly. I hedged my bets across the board in my second week of predicting, and I still overshot it. I’m pretty much spent with the sight-unseen nastiness towards Priest (there’s plenty in Friday’s video), so I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves. I understand that it is one of the most expensive productions Screen Gems has yet overseen, and they partnered with Sony who, despite working hard to appeal to the comic-book audience here in the states, expects overseas to be the saving grace for this unsurprising flop.

It’s worth nothing that Rio held like whoah, and managed to flap back up into the top five, as Jumping the Broom and Something Borrowed fell under the weight of Bridesmaids. The per-screen was still strong for Jumping the Broom though- it definitely found a chunk of that audience that finally pushed the latest Tyler Perry flick over $50m this weekend.

Next week will be brought to you by the favorit letter of most pirates. You would think that was R(rrrrr), but most pirates actually prefer the might C.

There’s also the limited release of Woody Allen’s new film, which opened Cannes to… well, whatever buzz there might be, I haven’t heard. I’m seeing Tree of Life though, so we’ll also have that to talk about!

The thread in which you talk about this stuff.