DELLAMORTE’S BOX OFFICE WRAP UP 4/8/11

This just in: How much did Natalie Portman dance in Black Swan? Scientists say “who fucking cares?”

Hop was going to hold the weekend. As the Spandau Ballet sang “this much is true.” Everything new has modest pluses, but mostly negatives. Hop opened bigger than expected, but as a kids film it would have been better to fall less than 40%. It’s still on track to make $100 Million domestic, but next weekend it has direct competition, and will fall to third place, But probably  not lower, I say that because it could drop 60% and it would be at $9 Million. A film would have to fall less than 25%. Seems unlikely.

Arthur was the best of the new films, but Hanna was nipping at its heels. Hanna also had the better per screen. Arthur opened to a not terrible number for a movie that doesn’really have a movie star. For all the talk of Jennifer Garner being in the trailer excessively, Helen Mirren doesn’t sell comedies, and Russell Brand is a partly known. Get Him to the Greek got sold on his wackiness, yes, but audiences knew Jonah Hill better. And then there’s Greta Gerwig who isn’t well known except to boys like me who crush on her. This came out in April for a reason, so I’d say well done, except $13 isn’t a winning number for a studio film. Maybe it gets to  a little over $40 Million. That’s the best possible outcome.

The Hanna numbers are surprisingly strong and the film seems to have found its audience. Stylish asskicking never goes out of style, but straight action movies are harder to sell these days. The film I saw this most compared to is The Professional, and I think there’s some of that to this. Partly because of its art-house pedigree. But I guess Joe Wright is not the kind of filmmaker to alienate his base (people don’t know him that well). Perhaps people like to see Eric Bana and Cate Blanchett play. I know I do. If word of mouth is positive this could hold strong until Fast Five without too much difficulty. But the best result would be around $50 domestic. That would be a minor miracle. Especially since Universal surely overspent on Your Highness.

Your Highness was always a weird sell. I liked the film a lot, laughed my ass off. But it’s also a very specific film, and Danny McBride is more of a cult icon than movie star. When he’s your lead, and the film can’t take advantage of its other co-stars other than Portman as half-naked, then I don’t know. But it was always a weird film. I celebrate its release and look forward to the DVD, but it should do a little over $20 Million, and anything more than that is going to surprise me. But its fans will be dedicated I’m sure – though doubtfully Scott Pilgrim or Serenity dedicated.

Soul Surfer worked out. This was somewhat underground because they were selling it to the Bible belt. It worked okay, though that audience is fickle. It worked for The Blind Side, but that had a larger appeal and a more All-American sport. Helen Hunt and Dennis Quaid are older, so they probably didn’t get paid much, and Kevin Sorbo also stars, and he’s been a harbinger of DTV for a while now. Low budget assuredly, this will probably get to around $30 Million, and that seems like a pretty good payoff.

But the champion of the weekend is Insidious. It’s nearing $30 Million, and it didn’t collapse, which is standard operating procedure for horror these days. It was cheap to make, and was a pick up so this is a big win. It will get to over $40 Million, and that’s big for a film like this. Source Code held okay, but will probably make less than Insidious when all is said and done. Premise is a better seller these days than name talents when it comes to lower budgets. Limitless is a minor victory, and The Lincoln Lawyer is holding strong. Wimpy Kid gets to $50. Good numbers for them.

Next week we’ve got two relatively bigger titles. Scream 4 should open to at least $30 unless the franchise is dead. We shall see.