Did a lot of I Am Number Four coverage this week. I thought the exclusive Marti Noxon interview turned out real well, though I thought the majority of it turned out fine enough. Give it a gander if you haven’t. And if you have, this into serves to offer you nothing.
SORT OF A HOLIDAY WEEKEND
I guess you can call President’s Day a holiday. I mean it is technically, but I don’t think anyone celebrates it. Maybe some presidential impersonators. School kids and mailmen, sure. I guess they have a reason.
How big a weekend will it be? Likely no bigger than most, but there’s at least some action this weekend for cinema. DreamWorks – for its first film under the umbrella of Buena Vista/Disney – has got I Am Number Four. This is a Young Adult literature novel turned into a film, though one in production before the book was even published. I know this because everyone involved with the production said so. It plays like a mélange of all things that appeal to teens right now. My review will be up shortly. I was not a fan. But it looks like they’ve marketed it right and the name was a draw. Alex Pettyfer is one of those guys that we will either see for the next month (he’s also in Beastly), or for a while. I can’t tell yet, but would bet the former. If you had shown me Robert Pattinson five years ago I would have never guessed he would be such an object of desire. I don’t know if he is as much as his character is though. DreamWorks is hoping for a franchise, but the film feels very television-y.
I would think that Big Momma’s House: Like Father, Like Son would be enough of a franchise to open, and I think the some stats have underrated it, but tracking doesn’t seem to have race problems like it does under ten years old problems. The first two Big Momma’s films made a lot of money. This may be desperation, but the second film came out on a shit date and did a lot of business. And there haven’t been a lot of black-centric films lately. That said, Martin Lawrence’s track record of late – he does in the 40 Million dollar range – is fine if you go cheap. It all depends on how much this film cost, which seems to be angling Lawrence out, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t get paid – or that the brand can survive without him.
Unknown is a little bit of a question mark, but only because Taken did so well, and The A-Team did so middlingly. Word is mixed, but action is action. That said, action isn’t comedy, and people don’t trust action actors to leap from successful projects in the same way there’s more a steady play to someone like Adam Sandler. Tracking puts I Am Number Four at a slight lead with all of these films, but it’s all doing within similar numbers.
Ultimately, you’ve got three films that look weak, and next weekend looks weaker. February is an off month, and March has become A-title heavy, even if some of those titles couldn’t handle a summer barrage. Next week should be soft. Such is the season.
NOW I AIN’T SAY SHE’S A GOLD DIGGER, BUT SHE AIN’T MESSING WITH NO BROKE PREDICTIONS
Could Just Go With It hold the weekend? Probably not, but if it only is off 30% they could do $20 Million, and that might be enough. I Am Number Four is likely the winner of the weekend, unless Big Momma plays stronger with families than expected.
So here we go:
1. I Am Number Four – $21 Million
2. Gnomeo and Juliet – $18 Million
3. Just Go With It – $17 Million
4. Unknown – $16.5 Million
5. Big Momma’s House 3 – $15 Million
This is obviously for the three day. It’s a weak weekend, I wouldn’t be surprised to see these numbers much lower, or some change in location. We’ll see Sunday.