DELLAMORTE’S BOX OFFICE WRAP UP 1/28/11

This just in: a series of tubes that, when connected, could just change the fate of a plucky twelve year old lynx.

The Rite relative failure is open to all sorts of puns based on its title, which I tried to make on Friday. The problem Warner Brothers is going to run into is that Horror films are opening weekend pictures – and brother, this didn’t open. Such means if it’s only off 40% next weekend, it won’t be a win, but it will explain why it didn’t drop like a rock (because it didn’t open). Exorcism-centric films like The Last Exorcism, The Exorcism of Emily Rose, and The Exorcist have been hugely profitable, so it’s considered a genre that can launch a modest title. But Stigmata did not make much of an impression, so it’s not a hard and fast rule that religion + horror = underpants gnomes. Or success, or something. The Mechanic was supposedly super cheap for CBS films, which has yet to find its groove for anything. It may also be front loaded, but a $30 million take is likely, which the company says is a win. Jason Statham likely has a solid international following at this point, so it’s surely a modest success. Nobody puts films out in January hoping for a runaway success.

No Strings Attached is performing nicely, and though production is likely equal to the costs of P&A, Paramount should at least see a $60 – $80 Million grand total. It’s no runaway success, but it’s a solid number for a January romantic comedy release. It’s not great for anyone’s career, but it’s also not bad. It’s like a minor variation on Due Date’s modest success. The Green Hornet is nearing $80 Million, and should be able to get close to $100 if not over. International is starting to kick in. There were problems on the project, and if Sony were happy with it, we might have seen sequel talk papering the trades. If we don’t after the film hits $100 the franchise is done.

By winning the DGA award, Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech has all but locked best picture and director, unless we see something different from the SAG awards tonight. The only major spoiler after that would be True Grit, as it wasn’t nominated for Best Ensemble from SAG but was for the best picture Oscar, and seemed to pick up heat later in the run of things. If David Fincher wants that Oscar, may I suggest my spec script “Julie’s Slowly Dying of Cancer During World War II (she’s also secretly jewish)” I don’t want to give anything away about the script, but let’s just say, I think the academy might like it. Speech, with twelve Oscar nominations, is now at $72 million dollars and will handily cross the $100 Million dollar mark with or without the big win. And I guess people like it.

True Grit, The Fighter and Black Swan also either held strong or had a light bounce from their nominations,  with Grit about to cross the $150 Million dollar mark, Swan over $90 Million, and The Fighter nearing $80 Million. Their job is to hold screens, but they should be safe in anything above a ten screen market. They are still playing well-ish, while films like The Dilemma are dying quickly. Dilemma is at $40 Million, and may limp to $50 Million, which wouldn’t be a terrible total if this was done as a faux-indie, where everyone took a pay cut, but it’s doubtful anyone lowered their quote on this one. Yogi is still in the ten, which means that a $100 Million final total is not out of the question.

Next week promises a PG-13 erotic thriller and a 3-D movie produced by James Cameron, who’s now on Twitter. Things will pick up in March, however.