DELLAMORTE’S BOX OFFICE WRAP UP 1/14/10

This just in: the results of the Miss USA pageant. Who is this for, exactly? I understood why it might exist before the internet, but now it just seems like the remnant of a outdated culture.

I hate focus on the negative over the positive, but I look at this list and the first big story seems to be audience’s cold reception of the latest Ron Howard/Vince Vaughn/Kevin James film. As much as The Green Hornet suggests that you can have a hit any time of the year, The Dilemma represents the normal studio attitude toward January releases. Ron Howard may have spent the last couple years making successful and unsuccessful Oscar bait, but he’s an A talent. Vince Vaughn has brought some “eh” movies to over $100 at the box office and as a lead or supporting player Kevin James has yet to be in a film that hasn’t grossed $100 Million or more. I thought the numbers might be a little better based on this heat, but no. But this is what January is classically for: the film never seemed to crack its marketing, and it hit the ground running with some controversy about its use of language. This is functionally a comedy, so its fall-off next week may not be as steep as The Green Hornet’s, but $60-ish is where I see the ceiling on this one.

The Green Hornet opened, and with the holiday Monday, it should get over $40 Million, and by the end of week be over or around $50 Million. This puts them in a good place to get to over a hundred, though a standard 50% drop means $17, which would put them near $70 Million. The math says they should be able to get near or over $100 by the end of run. So the film will depend on international to turn a profit. I haven’t seen any real numbers, but this is a film that looks to have cost over $100 Million, especially with the reshoots. It’s also doing numbers lower than Cloverfield, which had the same opening weekend, but way more hype (and way more backlash). That film opened to $46 for the holiday weekend and finished at $80 Million. So it all depends on how audiences respond to Seth Rogen and Jay Chou. I get the impression that it’s mostly positive, but Rogen seems a sticking point.

True Grit is holding well, and should be able to get to $150 and beyond if keeps holding this strong. Considering everything, it’s likely that True Grit will lap Little Fockers – which is at $134 – next weekend. And it may eventually pass Tron Legacy‘s domestic total. Little Fockers dropped 47% and is on its way out. It was directly hurt by both it and Dilemma being Universal titles, and by both being awkward comedies. Tron weathered the new films slightly better than expected, though also it may not have lost all of its 3-D screens. It dropped 44%, and I was expecting something closer to 60%. At this trajectory, a $170 domestic total is about as good as it gets. There’s been some sequel talk recently, but I don’t buy it. International numbers are still behind domestic, so it is at $300 worldwide as of right now, which suggests modest profitability. This is all about the toys. But – as with most modern blockbusters – I don’t see this as being great for anyone involved. I don’t think this moves the ball of Garrett Hedlund as a star, and I don’t know what Joseph Kosinski does next. The IMDb says he’s still attached to The Black Hole remake ( I hope he goes for the hat trick and does Condorman after that), but that just seems stupid. I think he’d be great for it, but I don’t see them making it. likely he will stay in the Mouse House, and hopefully they’ll get something going. Maybe he’ll get work with Marvel. He’s a good candidate for Iron Man 3 all things as the actors know who they’re playing now, and he can concern himself with the visuals.

We’re seeing the Oscar bait playing exceptionally well. The King’s Speech doubled its screen count and is now at $44 Million. The idea from here on out is to try and hold steady. The picture will at least do $70-$80 Million, the final twenty or so will have to come from award love. We should see the first of that tonight, as I think Colin Firth has a clear win ahead of him. Black Swan also likely nets Natalie Portman a golden globe. It added another 700 screens, so now it’s at full saturation. It’s at $73, and should be going into next weekend around $80 Million, so it’s going to make $100 Million at the box. Fuckin’ A. The Fighter never seemed to pick up that sort of heat, but it’s still playing and is surely profitable without ever coming front and center. Christian Bale’s likely win tonight (along with the Melissa Leo love) could keep this in the spotlight, and the film has been doing steady business. It would be surprising if the film made it to $100, but those numbers aren’t out of the question.

Season of the Witch and Country Strong dropped heavy, with Witch holding on to top ten placement. Yogi Bear is still out, as are a number of the Christmas and Winter titles, still doing over a million. Next week there’s only one wide release, so there won’t be too much movement, except for the effects of gravity.