DELLAMORTE'S BOX OFFICE WRAP UP 10/01/10

This just in: The return of “The Return of the Mack.”

While The Social Network‘s opening weekend numbers aren’t barn-burning, they’re also not terrible. David Fincher’s internet opus was done on a budget, and though I’m sure everyone is working out their Oscar game (Actor: Eisenberg, Supporting Actor: Timberlake, Supporting Actress: Mara, picture, Writer, director, tech noms, etc.) and starting the hustle for that, the film will have to be perceived as “not a failure” to guarantee that it has a chance of winning. The budget was a reported $40 (no names, everyone mostly took back end), so the question is how long will the picture play? They’ve got to still be in theaters by December to have a chance, and if the film ends up getting to only $50 it will have some stink on it. Whereas their most direct competition – The King’s Speech – can do $10 or less and still be a front runner. Critics mostly flipped for the picture, but not doing well can hurt it. So Sony’s going to have to make sure that it doesn’t drop more than 40% next week. My mom told me she wants to see it, so I take that as a sign it could pick up some interest from older audiences.

On the flip side, Let Me In tanked. When Hammer executives intro’d it when I saw the picture over a week ago, you could tell they were a bit nervous and wanted to get the word out. The problem is that Overture is pretty much a dead company, and the film is relatively cheap. Cheap works both ways – they probably won’t lose money if they’ve got international sales of any sort, but the lack of ad dollar means that they’ll probably be out of the ten next weekend. That they got trumped by Case 39 adds insult to injury. Case 39 sat on a shelf for years. But in the end it had some – though limited – star power. Both face horror drop offs, which is going to be 50% or more, so the limit for both is somewhere around $10 million, maybe a little over. If the Hammer branding means anything in England, the film might actually be okay. Case 39 won a minor victory with these numbers. If this was a garage sale, this is the film that Paramount put a sticker on thinking no one would buy it and that it would end up in the trash if it didn’t sell. Guess what? Someone bought it. And the joke’s on them.

Both the owl movie (sorry, I can’t type it’s title without my gag reflex kicking up) and Wall Street 2 were too expensive for their numbers to be considered great. That said, a cartoon could have strong international numbers, and Wall Street is one of those films where if it did cost $70 Million they paid too much for it, but the numbers it has are good for what it is. I say this comparing them to The Town, which has had a muscular hold, and a tremendous performance all the way around. That Ben Affleck, you can stop kicking him now. It looked like it could niche, but audiences have responded, and Affleck may yet see a close to $100 finish. $80 looks like a done deal, but after that it’s hard to say. The good news for it and the owl movie is that Warner Brothers doesn’t have another picture until Due Date on 11/5, so they can fight to keep them going stateside. My guess is that they’d rather be in the Affleck business right now than the Snyder business, but his ticket will get Sucker Punched next year. Owl gets to $50 domestic stateside. It’s all about international.

Easy A is a huge win, and should have no problems getting over $50, so it’s no Mean Girls ($86 million Domestic), but it is unquestionably a hit. Emma Stone has proved herself a commercial leading lady, so she either goes Spider-Man or takes her chances with another rom-com. Spider-Man is a steady paycheck, but often no heavy lifting and a locked in three picture (at least) deal. Seeing as how these sorts of pictures helped (and/or Enabled) Kristen Dunst and Megan Fox, there’s a good reason to say no. You Again was done on the cheap, and likely there’s a recycling factor re: television that can make it a non-loss for Disney. This was a lower tier product, and I am concerned about Kristen Bell’s future as a movie star, or doing much of anything but returning to television. She had some good seasons on Veronica Mars, so it’s not a bad place to be if the material is there.

Devil dropped 44.4% And if man is five (if man is five) and the Devil is six (and if the devil is six), and if you don’t know what I’m referencing, please watch this animated short subject  Alpha and go fuck yourself.

Next week offers Secretariat, which has sold itself as an impossible true story. I hate when ad lingo resorts to Morisettian definitions. I’m sorry, if it’s impossible, than it it not possible. Hence it couldn’t be. And a Katherine Heigl baby movie. AKA the worst date movie imaginable (unless you’re Bristol Palin… Hey-yo), and Wes Craven’s 3-D horror film. Ugh.