DELLAMORTE'S BOX OFFICE WRAP UP 8/6/10

This just in: sixteen copies of the soundtrack to The Black Hole. John Barry made a lot of films better.

The Other Guys was tracking slightly weak, and after Land of the Lost it was possible that audiences had tired of Will Ferrell. But funny is funny, and a PG-13 comedy like this – with all its performers – might just have enough of everything to get people to the theater. And then also: it might be good. With Dinner for Schmucks not really connecting, The Other Guys is in good shape to keep playing, and could/should cruise to a $100 million or over total.

Step Up 3-D didn’t do the opening weekend business of the first film or its sequel, which suggests there isn’t a built-in audience for this, or that this one was done so cheap that Disney didn’t care to put too much effort into it. As the film was made for around a $30 Million dollar budget, it’s possible the film will do about what it cost to make domestically, and these sorts of films do have an appeal in in foreign territories and a shelf life in home video. The problem is that as summer ends, there is such a steady stream of product (there’s eleven new films in the next three weeks) that a lot of the multiplexes are going to purging their screens.

This upcoming flood doesn’t bode well for a lot of the films on the board now. Salt will get over $100, but $110 strikes as the stopping point, which – with such a weak summer – may may make it one of the top ten films of the summer. Not bad, but it’s all about international. Schmucks is not a disaster, but it probably isn’t going to make money. Despicable Me has the possibility to keep going for a bit, so it should do a little more than the more recent original concept animated films (Kung Fu Panda, Monsters Vs. Aliens, etc.) But both Charlie St. Cloud and Cats and Dogs are going to get a little over $30, and be gone. I get the impression Universal knew they had a misfire with Cloud, and Warners treated C&D like a strip mall. Toy Story 3 is losing screens, but four million isn’t going to require too much stretching, and the film will hit the $400 million mark and likely stay the top grossing picture of 2010.

As for Inception, international just got to $250, which it should be at or spitting near domestically next weekend. Listed production is $160, real cost may be closer to $200, and marketing, etc. could have run over $100. Even with the numbers I just inflated, there’s no way this title isn’t a huge win for everyone involved, because it’s going to do over $600 worldwide, and ancillaries should be juicy (and if you don’t know now you know). Nolan is in for the new Batman, and maybe he’ll use the franchise as a safety net. Or maybe he’ll walk away after the third film ( I can only think of Dick Donner directing all four Leathal Weapons as a quadrilogy director… UPDATE: I forgot about Spielberg and Indiana Jones). Though I think Nolan’s found things in the franchise that engage him, I don’t think Batman is his lifeblood in the same way a film like Inception gets to the heart of his interests. Inception suggests he shouldn’t be tethered, which means I am dying to see what he does next that isn’t Batman.  

The Kids are All Right added more screens, which makes sense because it was the only way the picture was going to crack the top ten, and I think Focus is trying to sell this for Oscar. With women’s lead roles generally the weakest category of the major awards, and the still though barely controversial subject matter, it has a shot at the bottom ten, an acting nod and maybe screenplay. Right now it’s respected, but perhaps Prop 8 being struck down is the worst thing that can happen to this film. The academy has no problem rubbing America’s nose in it. But if marriage equality in California is okay, then championing a movie about lesbian moms doesn’t become the priority. The film then leans on a well-timed home video release.