DELAMORTE'S BOX OFFICE WRAP UP 7/31/09

This just in: the secret ending for Orphan. And it’s a d-ooo-ooo-ooozy.

Comedy is subjective. I would argue that Land of the Lost is funnier and more interesting than The Hangover. Even if I get why the latter is so successful and why the former was not. People in America tend to follow actors more than directors. And perhaps Judd Apatow was more in front of Funny People than Adam Sandler, which may have hurt the film, as it was selling the drama over a good time. There’s also been a public interest in a backlash dating back to post-Superbad, for whatever reason. Man had a hot streak. But with this and Observe and Report, perhaps there is a backlash of some sort against Mr. Apatow, and Mr. Rogen. Sandler films tend to open in the $30-$40 range, and this is bellow that. Perhaps it’s that the trailers featured the word cancer. The question is if the film will play long. It’s got the rest of the summer to hang out cause after G.I. Joe (and possibly the small but kick-ass District 9) there isn’t a lot of “A” competition. The problem is that there’s about two or three films a week going wide, and that’s enough to start hurting screen count in eleven days. I think the film will limp a bit, and more than double its weekend, but it’s probably going to end up in the $90 range. The question is if the film will have any Oscar heat. There are ten slots.

Harry Potter is chugging along, it should be able to crest $300 million, but that’s likely the stopping point. Again, for a dramatic rise in gross, they’re going to have to close this fucker out. And if Transformers wins the domestic contest, Harry Potter should clean up more internationally, and should get to the Billion mark. G-Force may not have to be lucky or pretty to cross the $100 Million dollar mark, but that’s going to be the question. Obviously it weathered Aliens in the Attic like it was A Gnome Named Norm, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be easy. It may very well need a training montage of some sort to get all the way there. But if it can show me the fever, show me the fire, and take it higher and higher, I’ve got faith that this shitty G movie will take it home. Or take it to the blood bank.

The Ugly Truth was going to ave to hang in there a little bit stronger to show any muscle for the nine digit club, and I don’t think it has it. So an $80 Million dollar gross is what’s in order (cause the court’s in session. The court of public opinion). It strikes me that Gerald Butler walked away from 300 with no oomph. That’s pathetic. I love that there’s a scene in this movie where Katherine Heigl gets raped by a ten year old boy. That’s something Bertrand Blier would have done in his prime (well, and he did), so bully, filmmakers.

I saw the trailer for Aliens in the Attic, and could not believe my eyes. This “Gremlins for the 21st century” looked like something that would go ATM… er DTV in the mid-90’s. It struck of bad New Line filmmaking. You go Fox, I bet this will play well it Slovakia. Orphan didn’t collapse like most horror movies. I think that’s because the surprise ending has been getting some play, and it’s enough to get people talking about the film. This bodes wel for Anti-Christ. Honestly, it’s better to have a kick ass third act than first act, though one is better for readers, and the latter is better for audiences. Ice Age 3 has $18 Million to go to get to $200. How important is that? Still unknown. But it’s leveling, and I’m sure Fox would rather have it on screen than Aliens in the Attic.

The Hangover has done over $250, which is amazing business, while The Proposal should get over $150 this week. Transformers 2 should get to $390 during the week, so it’s almost there, even if this is the last week in the top ten. I feel like we’re two weeks away from the majestic $400, but it could be another week after that. Trust me, they’re getting the Variety ad ready. $400,000,000 (domestic). Next week we get G.I. Joe, and then people will be able to judge it for itself. The question if the positive buzz is too little, too late.