DELLAMORTE'S BOX OFFICE WRAP UP 7/10/09

This just in: Questions about when Michael Mann’s fanclub kicked into gear. I remember seeing Heat in the theater, and people weren’t on the Mann train like they are now. Heat was something of a home video find. 

It’s no surprise that Bruno took the top slot, the problem is that it’s front loaded. How front loaded? It did $14 on Friday, and barely managed to double that. There is good news and bad news to this. Like Borat, there’s not a lot of additional costs, no sets to build, and so something like this can be done with a relatively low overhead. The problem for Universal is that Sacha Baron Cohen took way more money this time either up front or on the back end for a film that is going to struggle to do much more than half of what Borat did ($128 Million domestic). And with Bruno the ad push was heavy, so even though the up front isn’t going to epic, the film will probably make most of its money on home video, and possibly some international business (Borat as much business out of the country as it did stateside). And even though there’s only one picture next week, Bruno will still likely take a plus 50 tumble. Since all the Ali G characters have had their own films, it’s either about sequels (but the characters are now all overexposed, excepting maybe Ali G) or Cohen doing something new, or sticking to acting work. One thing is for sure, and that is that he will not be at want for work.

Ice Age 3 held nicely, though Harry Potter should kick it right in the nuts. It’ll have that moment where the vibrations of the kick keep resonating over and over until it falls over. Basically it’ll be exactly like Joe Pesci in Home Alone. 3-D might help some, so that might get it over the $200 hump, but that’s about it, and that may be being generous. It’s hard to know how the public is going to react to G-Force. The other question is how much Potter beats up on Transformers. I still think it gets to $400, cause next weekend it’ll be nearing $365- $370 Million, but it won’t be a triumphant line crossing, more of a limp across. But – because of the strike – Harry Potter is the last gigantic film of the summer, so in some ways the season is almost over. Funny People and G.I. Joe could be big, with the latter a possible tentpole, but they could also play in March, possibly just as well if not better.

Public Enemies cost $100, and it will likely get there domestically, which is not excellent, but probably what was expected. The question is if it’ll have much of a life outside America. If it does, then there’s that. I keep getting warned off seeing the picture because the digital photography is so ugly. Bruno and Drag Me to Hell are likely Universal’s best grossers so far, with Public Enemies more a middling, and Land of the Lost an outright failure. The question is if Funny People makes the summer better for them. It might, but anything less than $100 has got to look like a failure, which should be a cakewalk. But then how much did they spend on it? It could be another film that will do well, but like Bruno, cost too much to be a gold star.

Speaking of Gold Stars, The Proposal and The Hangover have earned theirs. The Proposal sailed past $100, and didn’t drop too bad, while the The Hangover barely dropped over 10%. The question with The Hangover is if it has enough life to get to $250 Million. It just might, but that would be the endgame. It should still be playing in August, though, which is rather amazing. It will likely do almost as much business as the new Star Trek. How crazy is that? Up is holding tight, but $300 is likely out of reach. It should be able to weather some of the Potter, in terms of screen count, but the week after it’s going to be losing screens left and right. So maybe $290? Not bad at all. If it makes the top ten of the Oscars, it might get a re-release, and maybe the 3-D would help it get an extra ten, but by then it’ll be on DVD. Hard to say.

It turns out that no one loves Beth Cooper, not even its parent company.

My Sister’s Keeper will get past $40, and Pelham is done. The former was relatively cheap and should turn a profit, the latter… strike movie. Such is this summer.