DELLAMORTE'S BOX OFFICE WRAP UP 5/15/09

This just in: The Da Vinci code. It translates to: “Always drink your ovalitne.”

The first of the Dan Brown movies (The Da Vinci Code) opened to $77 million stateside, and was a huge international hit. Now this one is off nearly 40% of that number. The roll-out to it felt weak, all things, so I don’t know if Sony knew that they had something easily sold, or if I just missed where they were dropping cash. In comparison to Wolverine or Star Trek, it felt undersold. So if you can get that to a near $50 with that minimal an effort, you’re in good straits. Next weekend should see the film collect at least another $30 in the four day, so it’ll be over $100 in the next ten to eleven days, and by the end of the run I’ll guess around $160. I thought this would be stronger in the long run, and it might show some legs as it is the most adult of the next couple of weeks. And if this is the standard for adulthood, cinema hates adults, especially ones who aren’t infantilized.

Star Trek held really well. After being off over 50% on Friday, the film picked up over the weekend. Paramount probably saw blood in the water with Angels and Demons, and in this case they’re probably throwing good money after good money. Wolverine has been out six and a half days more than Trek, and Trek is only behind by $3.5 million. Paramount can say they have relaunched their flagship with great success. But as strong as Trek has been going, next weekend should be the first direct hits, and though the four day should be beneficial (and the film may lap Demons one day before Thursday), I’m not 100% that it’ll be at $200 by the end of the four day. If that is the case, Paramount will surely settle for $250 domestic. If not, it’ll be close. Paramount will probably spend Monday trying to batten down the hatches and save as many of the multiple prints they thought they could ditch for Memorial day, but a lot of screen and space start evaporating shortly. 

That goes for Wolverine, too, which should have ditched most of its multiple prints by this weekend, and by next, it’s working its way down the theater to one of the smaller auditoriums. There are three films opening next weekend, and unless Dance Flick shits the bed (it won’t), Wolverine will be out of the top five, and should crap out around $170. International is already at $123 Million, so the pic is closing in on $300 worldwide, and will probably get to over $400 Million if it hasn’t opened in all territories yet. Surprisingly, the X-Men franchise has never been a hot international title, nor was Iron Man. In fact, one of the strongest internationally has been Spider-Man, but most do 50% or less of the business that they do stateside. If there is an Achilles heel for superhero movies, it’s that; a lot of blockbusters (like Da Vinci Code) and action films (like Bond) often do two to three times the amount of business on foreign soil. Superheroes, and that whole thing is distinctly American, and though the money isn’t laughable, when you look at the salary squabbles over Iron Man, these films really do have to be done on budget if you don’t have automatic international excitement to fall back on. 

In that sense, it’ll be interesting to see how Trek performs internationally, if it does the same as domestic (like most comic book films), or if it does twice domestic (which has always been the standard action move). To call its makers dick-deep in pre-production is an understatement. Is it going to be Christmas 2010, or summer 2011?  I bet they’ll be shooting by the end of the yearish.

There’s nothing much of note for the rest of the chart, except that Monsters Vs. Aliens is also a Paramount (by Dreamworks) title. There is likely pressure on them to get the film to $200, and though you can cheat a couple million, there aren’t as many dollar theaters as there once was, so I’d put the fudge zone at around $5 million. But they’re also still on almost 2,000 screens. Memorial day weekend it bleeds, and I’m sure that they’re going to need to hold Star Trek‘s multiple prints, but also see if they can’t keep MvA on the screens. They’re at $190 now, so if they can get through the weekend with around $3 Million for the four day, they’re nearly at $195. Then comes Up, but a film like MvA can play matinees in a dollar theater and such until Up finishes it’s run, which won’t be until July. Though it’ll be out of the top ten when it happens, MvA will successfully limp to $200 at this point. No one will notice it unless they are looking, but sometimes in the next two months, the film will cross that milestone and then go away.

From the outset, I’m guessing the top four movies next weekend do over $200 Million for the three day. And you can come with me if you want to live, and by live, I mean read more about this. Because reading is living.