DELLAMORTE'S BOX OFFICE WRAP UP 5/1/09

This just in: A trip to a naughty bits themed restaurant tends to up one’s sleazer factor +2. It also sets the default to “how many fake boobs am I looking at?”

There was some question to how big Wolverine might open. There is that whole leak thing, and it ain’t pretty. But it wasn’t enough to stop the film from opening to near $90 Million dollars. I said around $85, and that’s about right. Which makes me feel good for being close to right. Could the film have hit triple digits opening weekend without the leak, could it have followed in Iron Man’s footsteps? Possibly, though word of mouth on this one was mixed to begin with, so it’ll have to do with crossing that mark sometime by Wednesday-Thursday. Boo-fuckin’-Hoo. It’s still a franchise, and people even liked the third film. Though next weekend it should be off more than 60%, that doesn’t mean this troubled production needs to do much more than get that dirt of its shoulder. Cause films can be pimps too, go on brush its Jack shoulders off. It should crest over $200 and stop, probably by the end of the month. The film probably cost a little less than $200, so it makes its money on the international. I wonder if being this sort of whore was good for Gavin Hood (I don’t mean whore in a bad way, all things). Does Fox give him a film, or does he go back to Africa (where he made Tsosti)? Make no mistake, it’s a horrible time to be in the non-franchise/remake game.

Ghosts of Girlfriends Past is the only female-targeted movie until My Life in Ruins (Nia Vardalos’s semi-follow up to My Big Fat Greek Wedding), but tis the season for little boys, so that won’t matter much. Even Bride Wars should outperform this one, though it may hang out in the top ten for a while (with its shirt off). It’s the sort of film that can hang in there if word of mouth is good, or what have you. But $40-$50 is likely where this one tops out. People like Jennifer Garner, but she hasn’t been able to bring them in, except in supporting turns, or that is to say she may have been in hit movies but she hasn’t sold one. The gene pool for women her age and type is small, so she’ll probably keep working. I will give this to Mathew McConaughey: he’s never turned into Charlie Sheen. 

Obsessed is the sort of film that most people don’t think about much, but it’s near $50 million already and is one of those investments that studios would be wise to emulate. Cheap to make, easy to sell, quick dollars. Films like this and horror movies just need a concept, and as long as the concept works, then all you have to do is keep the production costs low. Well played. Especially when you compare it to the business model of something like Monsters Vs. Aliens, which has to take in foreign and DVD sales and rentals before it will turn a dime, though perhaps more dimes, eventually. Unless Paramount gives up too many of its screens to help Star Trek it could hang in there long enough to get to $200 Million, which they want -they always want round numbers – but Paramount’s going to have to pick their battles shortly. 17 Again was also cheap and it got Elizabeth Banks worked up into a lather, so it may have a life on home video. The Harlequin romance novel of the tweener set. Like I said, the jury’s still out on Zac Efron: movie star, but sometimes you’ve got to build that shit like a brand (see also: Adam Sandler).

The Soloist is somewhat of an embarrassment, so this is a charity run. It would be lucky to get to $30, so it all depends on how long it stays on screen. Universal doesn’t have a high-stakes horse in this race until Land of the Lost, so they may get lucky if multiplexes don’t want to just show six movies (even if those six are the only ones making money). Earth was a gimme, and should be popular with sixth grade science teachers who like napping and sodomy. Fighting will disappear quickly, and give rise to people who get it confused with other movies like it. But it’s not like they had any faith in it. Hannah Montana might be able to squeeze enough screens to get it to $75 Million or so. And State of Play crossed $30 million, which is embarrassing for everyone involved. Ben Affleck is back to acting, and maybe he’ll keep going. Like his wife, people like him, but he’ll probably be best building a supporting career for himself, and doing his films. After Gone Baby Gone, I’m cool with that. I just want Casey Affleck back on the big screen. Never thought I’d say that, but it’s true.

Next week brings Trek, and though advanced word has been nothing but raves, anyone who accidentally watched Nemesis may want to sit this one out. How big can you be when you’re rebranding something that has become viewed as “For Serious Nerds Only?” We’ll find out in seven days.