DELLAMORTE’S BO WRAP – 8/10/07

Let’s focus on the positives shall we? This weekend, Bourne got to $100 Million and then some, Chuck and Larry blew their way past the nine digit hurdle, Simpsons cleared $150 and #11 Transformers crossed over the $300 mark, one of the four films to do so this year (the others being May Three, which aren’t as cool as the Secaucus 7, but standards change). Congrats, Don. I’m sure the fast trackination of Transformers 2 is still going strong.

Some say Hairspray is underperforming expectations, and they may be right, but that it will get to $100 is some kind of victory, no matter how popular the source material, or evil the director. Somewhere in the 100-120 range is good (even if foreign markets aren’t all that great), and the DVD sales will be great, right?

Now, onto the sad stories that make kittens cry, which then makes everything more sad. Let’s start with the easy ones first. Skinwalkers opened at 18th pace with a little over a half a million. Sad. Daddy Day Care just cracked the top ten, but probably didn’t cost very much and could make money on DVD. Still, sad.

Stardust cost $70, but Paramount only paid for half, so it won’t be until ancillaries that they could conceivably break ever. Likely because of their (in studio terms) meager investment, Paramount either didn’t want to know or didn’t care how to sell the picture, and so a $20 Million domestic is as it good as it’ll get. Even The Stepford Wives remake had a decent DVD, so it’s possible that the Digital Video Disc could catch on, and make the film money that way, but it may just as likely not. Director Mathew Vaughn seemed to finish the paperwork on Thor right before this hit theaters, and because of the possible strike that will likely hold (some people have been shook from projects when their latest stunk the place up). But still. Sad.

Rush Hour 3 may look like a hit, but it will likely struggle to get to $150 domestic, if that. Considering that Jackie Chan, Chris Tucker and Brett Ratner get a piece of gross, New Line will likely not be turning much of a profit on this one, if any. Though that number looks okay, it’s well below most everyone’s tracking, and it’s also possible that the film will have troubles getting past $120, and… it wouldn’t surprise me if this was the first film to make $50 opening weekend and not cross $100. (Scary Movie 4 opened to over $40 and didn’t hit $100, so it could happen). That would be very strange, but it’s also likely that actuals will adjust the film to under $50. There are two things in the film’s favor: one is that summer is now officially over in terms of powerhouses and two, Superbad could help the film by offering youngster buying tickets for RH3 but abdicating their auditorium.

But the bigger picture – as it has been for over six years now – is the fate of New Line. The Rings films bought some time, all things, but there has been a very public concern about how Bob Shaye has been running the company, and a sense that Time-Warner could swallow whatever is of value into their larger picture. The company had a beater of a year last year, and 2007 is not getting much prettier. The Golden Compass may be the final straw for the studio. Or maybe not. But the rumbles aren’t good, and everyone’s keeping their eye on the studio like vultures. Sad for us. Sad for kittens.