JEREMY'S EXCESSIVE SUMMER MOVIE PREVIEW
- By Jeremy Smith
- Published 04/21/2008
- News
As a part-time cineaste, the idea of assessing the commercial prospects of films and ranking them like college football teams represents the height of vulgarity. Though there is something undeniably cinematic about a great football game (see the Hoosiers-like 2007 Fiesta Bowl), great movies nourish the soul; they speak to our hopes and dreams, and tease out our primal urges. Whereas spectators might emerge from the annual Ohio State/Michigan contest desperate to ambush a lone fan of the other team and bash him into lifelong physical impairment, filmgoers stroll out of the theater with such violent desires sated. If movies could truly inspire aberrant behavior, more than Dar Robinson would've been hurled from Atlanta's Westin Peachtree Plaza by now.
And yet we rank... order... dishonor. We reduce artistic achievement to a popularity contest, pitting Monet against Matisse, Bach against Brahms, Backdraft against Back to the Future III. It is trivial, tawdry, and wrong.
But it's April, and it's expected. Premiere's to blame; they made summer movie prognosticating glossy and fun. And so I'd like to dedicate the ensuing forecast to their 1991 preview, which called for Dying Young to outgross Terminator 2, Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves and the Julia Roberts co-starrer, Flatliners. To paraphrase Dabney Coleman's smut peddler in Summer 1987's #7 grosser, Dragnet*, that took balls as big as church bells. This one's for you, our dear, not-entirely-departed "Movie Magazine".
And what's better than a Top Twenty? How 'bout a Top Twenty-One?
21. Get Smart (June 20, Warner Bros.) - $65 million
It looks like Peter Segal has delivered a faithful-in-tone transfer of the television show (augmented with the requisite, big-budget set-pieces), but Steve Carell singlehandedly squandered his Daily Show/40-Year-Old Virgin goodwill last summer with Evan Almighty (which collapsed in a sweat at $100 million domestic after eighty-seven days of release). Combine that audience weariness with the direct opening-day competition from Mike Myers's The Love Guru, and this movie makes about $25 million less than it should.
20. Hellboy II: The Golden Army (July 13, Universal) - $80 million
I hope I'm $100 million short on this prediction. After an anemically-promoted theatrical release, the first Hellboy found a somewhat wider audience on DVD and cable, so I'll be optimistic and give it the ol' Chronicles of Riddick $20 million bump. As I stated in a previous column, Universal should sell Guillermo early and often, especially if/when The Hobbit gets its official greenlight.
19. The Happening (June 18, Tom Rothman's House of Horrors) - $88 million
In which we find out if M. Night Shyamalan has been humbled enough to make an un-self-conscious horror film (is there precedent for a director losing his possessory title credit in mid-career)? Visually, Shyamalan is as talented as any commercial filmmaker working today (helps when you hop from Fujimoto to Deakins to Doyle), but his conceitedness finally overwhelmed his storytelling talents - and, it seems, scared off all but his most devoted fans. The Happening sounds a little silly ("Don't you want to know what happened to the bees?"), but the last time Shyamalan got all end-of-the-world hysterical on us, he made Signs and a bundle of cash. This has serious sleeper (i.e. $100 million-plus) potential if Fox markets it competently - and this is a concern because quality flummoxes them.
18. Step Brothers (July 25, Columbia) - $100 million
Somewhere between Talladega Nights' $148 million and Anchorman's $85 million sounds about right. Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly are both coming off of major box office disasters (Semi-Pro and Walk Hard), both of which were aggressively marketed. If Sony can make clear that this is more of the quotable same from Ferrell's excellence-pissing A-team, then the male demographic should turn out. Two major causes for concern: The Dark Knight's second weekend and the nearness of Pineapple Express. Also: meteors.
17. Pineapple Express (August 8, Columbia) - $105 million
The only thing keeping this from equaling Knocked Up's $148 million haul is its guy-ness; women may love Seth Rogen and James Franco, but they're not likely to dig them as a sleazy process server and a shower-averse pot dealer. Then again, they loved Johnny Depp as Captain Jack Sparrow, blackened teeth and all, so maybe unkempt is the new dapper. (Because I want to see Jeffrey Wells do a double gainer over the high platform of insanity, I hope this comes to pass.) In the film's favor: it's insanely fucking funny.
16. The Incredible Hulk (June 13, Universal) - $110 million
Ang Lee's Hulk did $62 million over its June 2003 opening weekend; if Universal can drown out the bad buzz between now and June, Louis Leterrier's reboot should still fall well short of that number ($50 million would seem to be the ceiling). There's just no novelty, and the new Hulk doesn't look like a significant improvement on the previous one. One positive: the preview shown this past weekend at the New York Comic Con went over very well. And if a room full of screaming geeks meant anything to a film's financial prospects, Serenity would've been the next Titanic!
15. Meet Dave (July 11, Tom Rothman's S&M Dungeon of Deviant Delights) - $115 million
Looks wretched, but family-friendly Eddie Murphy is a lock for $100 million until he isn't. If he could almost get the Bataan Death March of Fat Suit Comedy (i.e. Norbit) past the century mark, the kiddie admissions should make up the dispiriting difference and then some. If PETA protests the cat kicking scene, it does an extra $20 million out of spite.
14. The Love Guru (June 20, Paramount) - $118 million
New character, same old shtick, and I don't get the sense that audiences are done with Myers just yet. Paramount sacrificed up to $20 million when they dropped The Love Guru on Get Smart's opening day, and I'm thinking it's a little too late for either one to blink. I don't know when Jessica Alba's due to drop her calf, but the tabloid media coverage of that forthcoming blessed event could raise the film's profile. The resulting rapture may eat into second week business.
13. You Don't Mess with the Zohan (June 6, Columbia) - $120 million
"Commercial" Adam Sandler is automatic $100 million, and this is the first wide release comedy (not counting Sex and the City) of the season. The screenplay was co-written with Judd Apatow and Robert Smigel, and, as you might expect, it's actually pretty funny. We'll see if professional joke-killer Dennis Dugan can drain the film of laughs.
12. Speed Racer (May 9, Warner Bros.) - $125 million
Word from last week's junket screening was very upbeat, but teenagers might still scoff that the film is kids' stuff. This is the most brutal May in memory, and, as I've mentioned, families might take a weekend off from the megaplexes to gear up for Prince Caspian. Warner Brothers is selling Speed Racer hard; three weeks out, that aggression could wear audiences down (especially if they're iffy on it already). Luckily, it's not unheard of for four May releases to clear $100 million (e.g. the 2006 quartet of X-Men: The Last Stand, The Da Vinci Code, Over the Hedge and Mission: Impossible III).
11. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (August 1, Universal) - $130 million
Factor in The Scorpion King, and the Mummy franchise has earned just short of $450 million domestically. Since quality of the finished product is irrelevant, Universal would be financially irresponsible to not revisit the series. With Brendan Fraser back on board and Stealth maestro Rob Cohen bringing along his special brand of stupid, there's no reason this shouldn't be louder and less coherent than the other installments. It's also got the weekend of August 1 pretty much to itself (unless you think The Rocker or He's Not That Into You pose a challenge), so don't expect it to flee to October.
10. Sex and the City (May 30, New Line) - $140 million
Even a dead studio can open this. Though I'd like to think that women have moved on from this tramp-enabling affront to feminism (which many a feminist embraced), the looming media onslaught will be too deafening to ignore. Also, it's the only movie overtly appealing to that audience in the entire month of May. Chick counter-programming doesn't always work in the summer, but this is more The Devil Wears Prada than Georgia Rule. Also, as the trailer artlessly hints, there's a shocking character development late in the first act - and it's not just Carrie fleeing the altar - that should generate must-see buzz.
9. Wanted (June 27, Universal) - $145 million
Universal moved Timur Bekmambetov's Wanted from the spring to the summer, thus giving it a vote of commercial confidence and placing it into direct competition with a bunch of other big movies. I get the feeling Wanted could've ruled March and April, but Unviersal evidently felt the comic book adaptation would work better as shoot-em-up counter-programming to the somewhat gentler Wall-E. Or, most likely, they saw the possibility of screens opening up during The Incredible Hulk's third weekend. Like The Mummy 3, this looks like the kind of dumb that makes bank. I just hope there's not supposed to be any sexual chemistry between James McAvoy and Angelina Jolie.
8. Tropic Thunder (August 15, DreamWorks) - $150 million
It's Robert Downey Jr.s Iron Man curtain call, Ben Stiller's return to respectability and, once all the coin is counted, the top-grossing comedy of the summer (it's just more of a straight sell than Pineapple Express). The "blackface" element will get obsessed over (and, perhaps, start a bit of controversy in certain, humorless quarters), but the racial component didn't exactly hurt Blazing Saddles. I'm not suggesting Tropic Thunder is a classic-in-the-making, but Stiller seemed capable of greatness as a filmmaker before he took his get-rich break. Who knows?
7. Hancock (July 2, Sony) - $175 million
Though it's not testing well, there's still plenty of time to fix the tone issues before the July 4th holiday - which, as the star will most assuredly remind us time and again in the months leading up to opening day, belongs to Will Smith. Even if director Peter Berg fails to pull it all together, it's not like Hancock is giving off the DOA stench of Wild Wild West (which still grossed $113 million). $175 million is just short of Hitch's domestic take, and, therefore, a conservative guess.
6. Kung Fu Panda (June 6, DreamWorks Animation) - $200 million
That early June date didn't help last year's Surf's Up, but advance buzz says this is DreamWorks Animation's most satisfying film to date. Could take a hit from family flick overkill, but I'm guessing that young kids will be more than happy to skip Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Marketing has been soft thus far, but the Cannes debut banishes thoughts of a move to the less competitive fall.
5. Iron Man (May 2, Paramount) - $210 million
I toyed with the idea of this being the third highest grossing flick of the summer, but that only happens if Robert Downey Jr. connects with the chick audience. I haven't seen it yet, but it sounds like Iron Man is a little too wide-eyed and "Gee Whiz" to blow past Paramount's expectations. Still, don't underestimate the Downey charm, especially now that he actively wants to be a movie star. If the movie underperforms, it's because the action is slightly underwhelming. But wasn't that the major caveat with the first Spider-Man?
4. The Dark Knight (July 18, Warner Bros.) - $220 million
Poised to be the geek film of the summer, but the unremittingly dark tone will continue to hold the franchise back from Spider-Man-level success. Fans may not understand this, but the studio does, and they'll be more than happy to bank a little extra in theatrical before making a killing on Blu-Ray. As long as Nolan doesn't break three-hours, the run time shouldn't be a concern (didn't hurt the Pirates of the Caribbean sequels).
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (May 23, Paramount) - $260 million
The rest of the world just isn't as excited about this movie as you are. The second weekend of Prince Caspian will siphon off part of the Memorial Day holiday family audience, and likely tepid-to-negative word-of-mouth will take its toll in subsequent weekends. If the film is better than I've heard (and this publicity spin ain't encouraging), tack on another $100 million for repeat viewings and the like. I still feel like I'm going way too high with $260 million. Hope I'm wrong.
2. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (May 16, Disney) - $330 million
The real event of May. The Lion, The Witch & The Wardrobe fell just short of $300 million as a Christmas release; Prince Caspian will face more competition in the summer, but it'll also be past $200 million by the end of Memorial Day weekend. I get the feeling that this could blow up like Shrek 2 and rack up eight-figure three-days until Wall-E hits, but Kung Fu Panda should get in the way (though Shrek 2 co-existed with Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban in 2004 just fine). Look, I didn't like TLTW&TW either, but that doesn't change the fact that Narnia is a youth-skewing, faith-based Lord of the Rings juggernaut. Deal.
1. Wall-E (June 27, Pixar) - $400 million
Pixar's E.T. Wall-E is already a hit with kids (I made the mistake of showing the trailer to my four-year-old nephew; ten replays later...), and Pixar is Pixar. They made $200 million with a film called Ratatouille. They're good for double that with a cute, lonely robot who follows his true love to outer space.
How wrong am I? I'm sure you're too shy to opine below.
(Programming Note: The Beijing Olympics might impact August business, especially if riots and worse break out.)
*#3 grosser of Summer 1987? Stakeout.
And yet we rank... order... dishonor. We reduce artistic achievement to a popularity contest, pitting Monet against Matisse, Bach against Brahms, Backdraft against Back to the Future III. It is trivial, tawdry, and wrong.
But it's April, and it's expected. Premiere's to blame; they made summer movie prognosticating glossy and fun. And so I'd like to dedicate the ensuing forecast to their 1991 preview, which called for Dying Young to outgross Terminator 2, Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves and the Julia Roberts co-starrer, Flatliners. To paraphrase Dabney Coleman's smut peddler in Summer 1987's #7 grosser, Dragnet*, that took balls as big as church bells. This one's for you, our dear, not-entirely-departed "Movie Magazine".
And what's better than a Top Twenty? How 'bout a Top Twenty-One?
21. Get Smart (June 20, Warner Bros.) - $65 million
It looks like Peter Segal has delivered a faithful-in-tone transfer of the television show (augmented with the requisite, big-budget set-pieces), but Steve Carell singlehandedly squandered his Daily Show/40-Year-Old Virgin goodwill last summer with Evan Almighty (which collapsed in a sweat at $100 million domestic after eighty-seven days of release). Combine that audience weariness with the direct opening-day competition from Mike Myers's The Love Guru, and this movie makes about $25 million less than it should.
20. Hellboy II: The Golden Army (July 13, Universal) - $80 million
I hope I'm $100 million short on this prediction. After an anemically-promoted theatrical release, the first Hellboy found a somewhat wider audience on DVD and cable, so I'll be optimistic and give it the ol' Chronicles of Riddick $20 million bump. As I stated in a previous column, Universal should sell Guillermo early and often, especially if/when The Hobbit gets its official greenlight.
19. The Happening (June 18, Tom Rothman's House of Horrors) - $88 million
In which we find out if M. Night Shyamalan has been humbled enough to make an un-self-conscious horror film (is there precedent for a director losing his possessory title credit in mid-career)? Visually, Shyamalan is as talented as any commercial filmmaker working today (helps when you hop from Fujimoto to Deakins to Doyle), but his conceitedness finally overwhelmed his storytelling talents - and, it seems, scared off all but his most devoted fans. The Happening sounds a little silly ("Don't you want to know what happened to the bees?"), but the last time Shyamalan got all end-of-the-world hysterical on us, he made Signs and a bundle of cash. This has serious sleeper (i.e. $100 million-plus) potential if Fox markets it competently - and this is a concern because quality flummoxes them.
18. Step Brothers (July 25, Columbia) - $100 million
Somewhere between Talladega Nights' $148 million and Anchorman's $85 million sounds about right. Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly are both coming off of major box office disasters (Semi-Pro and Walk Hard), both of which were aggressively marketed. If Sony can make clear that this is more of the quotable same from Ferrell's excellence-pissing A-team, then the male demographic should turn out. Two major causes for concern: The Dark Knight's second weekend and the nearness of Pineapple Express. Also: meteors.
17. Pineapple Express (August 8, Columbia) - $105 million
The only thing keeping this from equaling Knocked Up's $148 million haul is its guy-ness; women may love Seth Rogen and James Franco, but they're not likely to dig them as a sleazy process server and a shower-averse pot dealer. Then again, they loved Johnny Depp as Captain Jack Sparrow, blackened teeth and all, so maybe unkempt is the new dapper. (Because I want to see Jeffrey Wells do a double gainer over the high platform of insanity, I hope this comes to pass.) In the film's favor: it's insanely fucking funny.
16. The Incredible Hulk (June 13, Universal) - $110 million
Ang Lee's Hulk did $62 million over its June 2003 opening weekend; if Universal can drown out the bad buzz between now and June, Louis Leterrier's reboot should still fall well short of that number ($50 million would seem to be the ceiling). There's just no novelty, and the new Hulk doesn't look like a significant improvement on the previous one. One positive: the preview shown this past weekend at the New York Comic Con went over very well. And if a room full of screaming geeks meant anything to a film's financial prospects, Serenity would've been the next Titanic!
15. Meet Dave (July 11, Tom Rothman's S&M Dungeon of Deviant Delights) - $115 million
Looks wretched, but family-friendly Eddie Murphy is a lock for $100 million until he isn't. If he could almost get the Bataan Death March of Fat Suit Comedy (i.e. Norbit) past the century mark, the kiddie admissions should make up the dispiriting difference and then some. If PETA protests the cat kicking scene, it does an extra $20 million out of spite.
14. The Love Guru (June 20, Paramount) - $118 million
New character, same old shtick, and I don't get the sense that audiences are done with Myers just yet. Paramount sacrificed up to $20 million when they dropped The Love Guru on Get Smart's opening day, and I'm thinking it's a little too late for either one to blink. I don't know when Jessica Alba's due to drop her calf, but the tabloid media coverage of that forthcoming blessed event could raise the film's profile. The resulting rapture may eat into second week business.
13. You Don't Mess with the Zohan (June 6, Columbia) - $120 million
"Commercial" Adam Sandler is automatic $100 million, and this is the first wide release comedy (not counting Sex and the City) of the season. The screenplay was co-written with Judd Apatow and Robert Smigel, and, as you might expect, it's actually pretty funny. We'll see if professional joke-killer Dennis Dugan can drain the film of laughs.
12. Speed Racer (May 9, Warner Bros.) - $125 million
Word from last week's junket screening was very upbeat, but teenagers might still scoff that the film is kids' stuff. This is the most brutal May in memory, and, as I've mentioned, families might take a weekend off from the megaplexes to gear up for Prince Caspian. Warner Brothers is selling Speed Racer hard; three weeks out, that aggression could wear audiences down (especially if they're iffy on it already). Luckily, it's not unheard of for four May releases to clear $100 million (e.g. the 2006 quartet of X-Men: The Last Stand, The Da Vinci Code, Over the Hedge and Mission: Impossible III).
11. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (August 1, Universal) - $130 million
Factor in The Scorpion King, and the Mummy franchise has earned just short of $450 million domestically. Since quality of the finished product is irrelevant, Universal would be financially irresponsible to not revisit the series. With Brendan Fraser back on board and Stealth maestro Rob Cohen bringing along his special brand of stupid, there's no reason this shouldn't be louder and less coherent than the other installments. It's also got the weekend of August 1 pretty much to itself (unless you think The Rocker or He's Not That Into You pose a challenge), so don't expect it to flee to October.
10. Sex and the City (May 30, New Line) - $140 million
Even a dead studio can open this. Though I'd like to think that women have moved on from this tramp-enabling affront to feminism (which many a feminist embraced), the looming media onslaught will be too deafening to ignore. Also, it's the only movie overtly appealing to that audience in the entire month of May. Chick counter-programming doesn't always work in the summer, but this is more The Devil Wears Prada than Georgia Rule. Also, as the trailer artlessly hints, there's a shocking character development late in the first act - and it's not just Carrie fleeing the altar - that should generate must-see buzz.
9. Wanted (June 27, Universal) - $145 million
Universal moved Timur Bekmambetov's Wanted from the spring to the summer, thus giving it a vote of commercial confidence and placing it into direct competition with a bunch of other big movies. I get the feeling Wanted could've ruled March and April, but Unviersal evidently felt the comic book adaptation would work better as shoot-em-up counter-programming to the somewhat gentler Wall-E. Or, most likely, they saw the possibility of screens opening up during The Incredible Hulk's third weekend. Like The Mummy 3, this looks like the kind of dumb that makes bank. I just hope there's not supposed to be any sexual chemistry between James McAvoy and Angelina Jolie.
8. Tropic Thunder (August 15, DreamWorks) - $150 million
It's Robert Downey Jr.s Iron Man curtain call, Ben Stiller's return to respectability and, once all the coin is counted, the top-grossing comedy of the summer (it's just more of a straight sell than Pineapple Express). The "blackface" element will get obsessed over (and, perhaps, start a bit of controversy in certain, humorless quarters), but the racial component didn't exactly hurt Blazing Saddles. I'm not suggesting Tropic Thunder is a classic-in-the-making, but Stiller seemed capable of greatness as a filmmaker before he took his get-rich break. Who knows?
7. Hancock (July 2, Sony) - $175 million
Though it's not testing well, there's still plenty of time to fix the tone issues before the July 4th holiday - which, as the star will most assuredly remind us time and again in the months leading up to opening day, belongs to Will Smith. Even if director Peter Berg fails to pull it all together, it's not like Hancock is giving off the DOA stench of Wild Wild West (which still grossed $113 million). $175 million is just short of Hitch's domestic take, and, therefore, a conservative guess.
6. Kung Fu Panda (June 6, DreamWorks Animation) - $200 million
That early June date didn't help last year's Surf's Up, but advance buzz says this is DreamWorks Animation's most satisfying film to date. Could take a hit from family flick overkill, but I'm guessing that young kids will be more than happy to skip Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Marketing has been soft thus far, but the Cannes debut banishes thoughts of a move to the less competitive fall.
5. Iron Man (May 2, Paramount) - $210 million
I toyed with the idea of this being the third highest grossing flick of the summer, but that only happens if Robert Downey Jr. connects with the chick audience. I haven't seen it yet, but it sounds like Iron Man is a little too wide-eyed and "Gee Whiz" to blow past Paramount's expectations. Still, don't underestimate the Downey charm, especially now that he actively wants to be a movie star. If the movie underperforms, it's because the action is slightly underwhelming. But wasn't that the major caveat with the first Spider-Man?
4. The Dark Knight (July 18, Warner Bros.) - $220 million
Poised to be the geek film of the summer, but the unremittingly dark tone will continue to hold the franchise back from Spider-Man-level success. Fans may not understand this, but the studio does, and they'll be more than happy to bank a little extra in theatrical before making a killing on Blu-Ray. As long as Nolan doesn't break three-hours, the run time shouldn't be a concern (didn't hurt the Pirates of the Caribbean sequels).
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (May 23, Paramount) - $260 million
The rest of the world just isn't as excited about this movie as you are. The second weekend of Prince Caspian will siphon off part of the Memorial Day holiday family audience, and likely tepid-to-negative word-of-mouth will take its toll in subsequent weekends. If the film is better than I've heard (and this publicity spin ain't encouraging), tack on another $100 million for repeat viewings and the like. I still feel like I'm going way too high with $260 million. Hope I'm wrong.
2. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (May 16, Disney) - $330 million
The real event of May. The Lion, The Witch & The Wardrobe fell just short of $300 million as a Christmas release; Prince Caspian will face more competition in the summer, but it'll also be past $200 million by the end of Memorial Day weekend. I get the feeling that this could blow up like Shrek 2 and rack up eight-figure three-days until Wall-E hits, but Kung Fu Panda should get in the way (though Shrek 2 co-existed with Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban in 2004 just fine). Look, I didn't like TLTW&TW either, but that doesn't change the fact that Narnia is a youth-skewing, faith-based Lord of the Rings juggernaut. Deal.
1. Wall-E (June 27, Pixar) - $400 million
Pixar's E.T. Wall-E is already a hit with kids (I made the mistake of showing the trailer to my four-year-old nephew; ten replays later...), and Pixar is Pixar. They made $200 million with a film called Ratatouille. They're good for double that with a cute, lonely robot who follows his true love to outer space.
How wrong am I? I'm sure you're too shy to opine below.
(Programming Note: The Beijing Olympics might impact August business, especially if riots and worse break out.)
*#3 grosser of Summer 1987? Stakeout.
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Comments
Comment #1 (Posted by this has nothing to do with movies)
Eff Michigan/Ohio State. See instead the teeming vile hatred which spews forth and permeates the city of Jacksonville, FL during the Georgia/Florida game. People from Columbus or Ann Arbor know nothing of such an experience.
Comment #2 (Posted by Peter Venkman)
Good list! sure I dont see Hancock and the Love Guru pulling in that much cash, but hell..who knows!
Comment #3 (Posted by masterbrocksamson)
Cool, this list gives me something to go by in planning out my getting infrequent trips to le cinema. I shit you not, I did not know Mummy 3 or 4(if you count TSK) was coming out, nor do I give too much of a shit. But boy I gotta say WHAT THE FUCK are you smokin' with that totale for Indy 4. EVERYONE I know is going to see it. I live in PA and I have friends from NJ driving in just to see it together. Wall-eh, 400 you say. We'll see...and I love Pixar for what it's worth!
Comment #4 (Posted by Shirley Brolin, sister of Josh...Seriously!!)
YAY! More negativity re Indiana Jones IV. You enjoy getting other sites to mention your name, correct? So it's worth shitting on everyone's fun, yes? Way to turn into a clone of the Devin/Andre hybrid.
Comment #5 (Posted by Chris)
What has this fucking cunt of a site got against Indy? Cunts
Comment #6 (Posted by an unknown user)
I have been to the future and can tell you that you're wrong about slightly less than half of these, Prince Caspian and Hellboy II being the two that you're off by the most money, Pineapple Express in third place.
Comment #7 (Posted by The Count of Monte Sawed-Off)
If The Love Guru makes that much money I'll cry. It'll probably happen.
Comment #8 (Posted by Nick)
Top 5 in this order
5. Iron Man
4. Indiana Jones (it ain't no star wars)
3. Chronicles of Narnia
2. Wall-E (this ain't now Incrdibles/Finding Nemo Buzz)
1. Dark Knight
Batman Begins wasn't bigger because of the previous installments... now, with Begins in everyone's mind, the kick ass trailer, and the death of Ledger... this will make over 300 million and be #1 of the year
Comment #9 (Posted by Voivodling)
Right ON! The Indy-bashing has got to stop! What is it with "critics" that they cannot like the movies the general public does? Guess they are just too cool. A decent Indy is better than MOST other movies.
OPIE AND ANTHONY! O&A PARTY ROCK! XM 202!
Comment #10 (Posted by Kijen)
Just a suggestion....
If theaters want to keep raising ticket prices to grab that "DVD money" that they assume people will just wait a few months for how about dropping alt cuts into the IMAX format? I damn well went to IMAX to see the Dark Knight extended opening and if Nolan says it is _____ long, let it be for those that are willing to go large to see it. Sure this will piss people off but how is this different then playing Red Band trailers in front of "R" rated films? Market to your audience.
Comment #11 (Posted by Josh Brolin's left foot)
Enough with the negativity about Indiana Jones. This sight is such a downer now. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
Comment #12 (Posted by JBanks)
"Eff Michigan/Ohio State. See instead the teeming vile hatred which spews forth and permeates the city of Jacksonville, FL during the Georgia/Florida game. People from Columbus or Ann Arbor know nothing of such an experience."
Please. UGA/UF isn't even the best rivalry in its own conference.
Comment #13 (Posted by Owen's landlady...Owen hasn't been home)
Christ! Where the hell is Owen?!? His writing is 10 times better than Beaks or Devin. Definitely better than Andre's "prediction" BS.
Comment #14 (Posted by Gwai Lo)
In my useless opinion your top 4 are correct but in the wrong order. As much as I want to be a delusional Batman fanboy nothing has a chance of fucking with Wall-E this summer. I don't think "too dark" will matter with TDK, it will be Bat Mania of 89 all over again. I think the biggest factor being underestimated here is the Ledger appeal. This movie is going to get that repeat-Titanic-viewings-funded-by-fathers-of-thirteen-year-old-girls-everywhere cash. Not quite to the same extent, but Ledger is basically beloved right now. I also think Indy will underperform, but time will tell. And as for Narnia, I probably won't see it in the theater but you can never discount that Passion of the Christ/family crowd that will see the hell out of that thing.
Comment #15 (Posted by an unknown user)
dunno about tropic thunder or hancock, superhero movies without established fanbases tend to flop: My super x g, mystery men etc. Tropic thunder is bound to run afoul of someone and it's rather questionable taste may mean that $150m is a bit of a stretch. I hope hellboy does a bit better than that, get smart too, there's some great people involved in them and it's be a shame. Hope mike myers sinks without a trace, if this tanks I bet they'll rush out the next austin powers in a hurry. When wil people learn that mike myers can only do 2 accents and that it's the same old schtick. I hope hulk does more $ too, if only to try and buoy an avengers movie before watchmen kills superhero movies dead.
Comment #16 (Posted by John Turturro's Landscaper)
Dennis Dugan made Brain Donors. So eat a dick, in that regards.
Comment #17 (Posted by Not a CHUD asshole)
You CHUD fucks know absolutely nothing about the quality of the new Indy flick but kudos for the constant negativity anyway. What would this pretentious site be without cunts trashing a film people have been waiting on for nearly 20 years. As to Narnia, that film could easily fizzle out quick given that the first couldn't even break 300 million during a much less crowded holiday lineup. But hey, you douchebags should be used to being wrong at this point, yes?
Comment #18 (Posted by PlanBFromOuterSpace)
I think you're seriously overestimating the chances of Sex and the City here. Just because it's the only thing that'll be out at the time that appeals to women doesn't mean it's going to be a hit. The same people that didn't care about the show are REALLY not going to care about the movie, and the same people that caught the series in re-runs or on DVD probably won't feel too bad about waiting to see this one at home. If anyone wants to know what happens in the movie, I'm sure they'll just discuss it in great detail on the following Monday's The View anyway. Maybe I'm just bitter because I bought the "Complete" Sex and the City DVD box set for my girlfriend a couple Christmases back...
Comment #19 (Posted by Indy Fan Hugger)
Bring it real close, internet sads.
Comment #20 (Posted by Brad Testes)
FOR ALL THAT IS GOOD AND HOLY, WHERE IS OWEN!?!
Comment #21 (Posted by Trump)
You need to cut down on the grosses for those R rated flicks. Sex and the city won't reach 100 and Pineapple Express will die out around the 75 million mark, if it even
gets that high.
Comment #22 (Posted by Josh Brolin...seriously, guys, I am!!)
My last stool sample had stronger predicting skillz. He said, and I'm quoting my stool sample, "Indy 4 will make lots of money and make Beaks look LAWLZ!"
Comment #23 (Posted by Travis)
Narnia will not do that well - the first one was shit shit shit and the second one has hardly even been talked about let alone promoted to the level of Dark Night or Iron Man.
Comment #24 (Posted by Predict This!(Summertime Blues))
Great article, Beaks. Premiere magazine memories flooding back. (That Dying Young prediction perhaps the biggest WTF I've ever read!) My only bone to pick is with your Love Guru ranking. Isn't Mike Myers floating purely on Shrek's juice? I don't think his name carries any weight on its own. I gotta believe a dumbed down Hulk pulls in more bank than some of the comedies. And Mulder & Scully failed to even place? Ouch.
Comment #25 (Posted by Tom Strong)
You way overestimated Wall-E and Prince Caspian. Caspian won't get over $200 mil
Comment #26 (Posted by Greg Clark)
For all that is holy, how is The Mummy 3 supposed to crack the century mark if they haven't even put a damn *teaser* poster out yet? It's three months away, and there's been zip for it. Methinks I smell a bomb. No one cares about this series anymore (and remember that The Scorpion King was a disappointment considering how heavily it was pushed).
Comment #27 (Posted by wd40)
Where the hell is X-Files 2? The first pulled in 83 million. With indirect competition from TDK the week prior and Step Brothers that day, I don't know if there is a huge threat against it. I imagine it will be a bit of a sleeper. Anyway, I really think that Xfiles 2 will do close to the same as the first in the long run, which exceeds some of the movies you have on this list.
Either way, I have never been more excited for a blockbuster summer than this. It will be nice after the trash that was last year's.
Has anyone noticed though that this is the summer of word-of-mouth? The advertising campaigns for most of these movies suck, yet we all know that many of them will be a massive success.
BTW, I am also irritated by the massive negativity aimed at Indy. Is it just popular to hate what's popular? Is it really believed by the elitist "geeks" that the movie is going to suck? what-the-fuck-ever.
Comment #28 (Posted by Andy)
Wanted should be towards the bottom. It'll be lucky to break $100.
Comment #29 (Posted by Angry Shark o' Doom)
The biggest inaccuracy that presents itself is the mixed up positions of The Love Guru and Get Smart. Everything I've heard about Get Smart, and the buzz for it leads me to believe that it's going to do pretty darn good business. My parents fondly remember the TV show, and I expect nostalgia will play strongly in its favor. The Love Guru only offers Mike myers, whose appeal is dubious, considering how he's relied on already-established characters.
WALL-E on top is accurate, and anyone not predicting it to dominate shouldn't bother predicting box-office in the first place. However, I agree with the numerous people here who have complained about CHUD's bizarre anti-Indy 4 bias. It should be at #2, with TDK at #3, and Caspian at #4.
Just to be on the safe side, I would also switch Panda and Iron Man.
Comment #30 (Posted by Simon)
My top 4: Dark Knight, Iron-Man, Speed-Racer, Indy.
I'm also getting a bit tired of all the Indy bashing. I get it, you guys don't think it'll be good. Every body gets it. Let's move on to something else, kay?
(I mostly agree with the rest of your list, though some stuff I'd move around a bit).
Later.
Comment #31 (Posted by Kristina)
I think Love Guru will bomb, just as every other recent Jessica Alba outing. Those numbers for Hellboy 2 make me sad. I do firmly believe in Wall-E, though. That thing looks too damn cute to lose.
Comment #32 (Posted by Chris)
Prince Caspian will not make that much money. It looks EXACTLY like the first and has a bit more competition than the pretty violent King Kong. Indy 4 will be the #1 grosser (sorry haters) and Wall-E will be a close 2nd. Love Guru won't make the top 30. I actually think X-Files 2 will outgross Sex and the City.
Comment #33 (Posted by Allie)
I think I never really got Devin's fanboy distinctions and hatings and stuff. Well, I do now. I love the Indy flicks and hope the best for Crystal Skull. But those stupid, dumb and dull reactions of "Indy fans" towards a piece of b.o. prediction are goddamn painful to watch. It's time to grow the fuck up.
Comment #34 (Posted by messi)
Sorry but this is not from a fan but what is going on with the rest of the world. The Dark Knight will be the biggest or second biggest movie. There is just no way it won't be unless it is an awful film. It has Lord of the Rings public hype on it, the film everyone wants to see. The Trailer destroyed, Ledger's death will be big and Batman Begins was so goddamn huge on dvd that this is the event movie of the year.
Comment #35 (Posted by Kaleidsoscope)
Jeremy is a bad writer and a clueless human being. His opinions are bunk.
Comment #36 (Posted by XTRO Camp! (formerly TFL))
Brad, that's not nice to say.
Comment #37 (Posted by Hunter)
You're telling me that 2 R RATED comedies will out gross 2 PG-13 comedies from Adam Sandler and Micheal Myers? I don't see it happening. I see Tropic Thunder doing 65-70 tops.
Comment #38 (Posted by moviemenace)
Indy is going to suck but it will not make a bit of difference. "Episode 1" made a bundle on repeat business even if the flick was not up to snuff. Fans will be fans. They show up in droves even with bad buzz. When they find the movie to suck, they will show back up to find excuses to praise it. And Will Smith has proven countless times he makes hits; currently our only true movie star. "Hancock" is going to own that weekend. "Tropic Thunder" is not making $150 million, not because it's R-rated, but because it is a Hollywood satire. No one in middle America gives a shit about the movie making process. It will make "Bowfinger" money at best ($66 million) no matter how good it is. "Journey 3-D" has a better shot at box office glory than "Mummy 3". And most of all, the list is forgetting about the female aud. Where's "Made of Honor"? "What Happen's in Vegas"? Not movies I'd want to see but relevant.
Comment #39 (Posted by Jeremy Smith)
You guys do realize that two R-rated comedies outgrossed I NOW PRONOUNCE YOU CHUCK & LARRY last summer, right? And WEDDING CRASHERS broke $200 million in 2005? The R-rated comedy stigma is a thing of the past. People want the raunch. Moviemenace makes a fair point about behind-the-scenes comedies, but I think TT has broader appeal.
Comment #40 (Posted by Prigger)
It doesn't matter what article is being posted. They always have time to throw some Aptow ass kissing in there!
Comment #41 (Posted by Tony Scarboni)
This is going to be THE SUMMER OF SUCK! TDK, and Indiana Jones are the only movies I'm excited for. Hellboy just looks too bloated and campy for its own good. Iron Man doesn't have enough money shots from what I've heard. The Hulk would need to pull off a miracle to get people's faith back. And screw Angelina Jolie and Wil Smith, are there enough sheep left to waste money on their movies?
Comment #42 (Posted by Belligerent Shark)
I worry for some of the people who comment here. Most people are letting personal bias strongly affect their predictions. Granted, that always factors into it somewhat, but declaring that Caspian will bomb is what we sane people like to call being a fucking idiot.
Jeremy's prediction for Tropic Thunder is right on target, considering the brilliant ad campaign so far, the involvement of Stiller and Black, and the fact that it's an action/comedy.
Comment #43 (Posted by Busboy)
This whole article is sad and irrelevant. I'll go to the movies and enjoy what I enjoy.
Comment #44 (Posted by Moorish)
I think Caspian will underperform. Hope The Hulk does well, if only becuase Marvel Studios need to come out of the gate swinging. Agree on the darkness of TDK, but good - we had a kiddie Batman flick before and it was cock leakage.
Comment #45 (Posted by TheMightyBoosh)
The comment by busboy is where it's at in my book. If I think something looks good then I'm going to see it, If I think it looks shitty, I'm not going to see it. case closed. I never listen to what so called "critics" say. The idea of critics to me is wacky and hilarious. People actually get paid to tell you the public what THEY think about movies..and the public GO FOR IT!!!??? That is insane to me. I can tell you this. When I go to these sites, like Chud or Aint It Cool or What have you, I could give a rats shit about what these "critics" or site owners have to say about movies. I am looking for the movie news, the scoops, the cool content, not bullshit biased (Some times paid off) reviews from people who have in my opinion, no idea what a good movie is. Most of these people who run these sites have a very fucked up view of movies these days. Everyone wants meaning and deepness and thought provoking cinema. Thats bullshit. Thats their lame wannabe film snob cynist look on film coming out and shoving it down the "geeks" throat to somehow make themselves more cinema worldly than most geeks. Face the facts, you ass hats havent seen half the shit you say you have and you need to truly sit back and say to youselves, ok Star wars does rock, The monster Squad rules, Indiana Jones is the fucking man, The things I grew up with are still rad! Not run around being all snobby and film god like. Grow up. I'm 31 years old and I collect toys, pposters, comics, sweet geek shit and I still think about 80% of the stuff I dug growing up is fucking awesome. You dudes and your lists and predictions mean dick all. Go to the movies geeks, go out and see what YOU want to see, Box office means shit. Indiana Jones rules and I love Friday the 13th! I guess I'm an un sophisticated no brain who cant apprecaite something as mind blowing as the garbage a lot of the online critics think is high art. Blah! Give me X-Files 2 and you can keep your Dark Knight. opinion of course. What happened to people just enjoying movies for what they are...ENTERTAINMENT. Have fun this summer, enjoy being alive and being able to see some of the stuff we are seeing. I think, but this is just MY opinion, Its a very good year to be a geek dude. Get your head out of your asses and watch what you want to watch. I'll be in front of the MILLIONS in line to watch Indiana Jones may 22nd(or rather the midnight show) and lets face it, I will see you there no matter how much you want to CLAIM you think it sucks without seeing it. Poor cinefiles...I know.
Comment #46 (Posted by Nac Dasty)
If you people can say The Dark Knight will be great without having seen it, I can say it will be a steaming pile of bat guano.
Comment #47 (Posted by joeytonz)
Jesus, Jeremy--is this what it's like to hang out with you? When you go out to eat, how do you act? "Well I could try the blue cheese steak, but you just know THAT's going to suck. I've heard mixed things about the mushroom soup, but because a lot of people seem to like it, I'm going to fucking ignore it. Guess I'll get what I always eat--a Judd Apatow-produced piece of human shit. Look, it's the same old shit, but this time he added corn to it! This is going to be REALLY GOOD. I'VE ALREADY DECIDED!"
Comment #48 (Posted by goatgoblet)
Good list, seems more likely than the one I saw in Entertainment Weekly. The top five listed will almost certainly be the top five of the summer, but not necessarily in that order. I would move Narnia down to four and Indy to five, but they will all be close. There is one glaring omission from this list. The new X-files movie will gross more than the 65 million you have Get Smart at. The first flick did 189 million, but this one will be luck to break 100.
Comment #49 (Posted by rudewordsmith)
I think this list is pretty plausible. I wouldn't be surprised (disappointed, yeah) to see TDK make less domestically. We're a bunch of whiny pricks here. A lot of people have told me they won't be seeing it because of Ledger's death. "Too Soon" they bemoan. I think they're full of shit, but ya never know. Get enough sensitive, stupid people and they can make The Love Guru #1. I sure hope Wall.E. makes that dough. Everything I've seen so far has me loving that little bastard.
Comment #50 (Posted by Old Greg (the might boosh))
I've got a Mangina!!!
Comment #51 (Posted by moovyphreak)
Thanks for referencing DRAGNET, which remains in my list of the top comedies of the late 1980s, if only for so many quotable lines.
Comment #52 (Posted by Jon Pernisek)
I predict 'The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor and the Book of Requiem Secrets' will crash and burn after its opening weekend, since, like Men in Black II, the franchise's status (such as it is) has diminished with so much time passing between films. I had never even heard of 'Wanted', and 'The Love Guru' will--if there is a God--implode just like 'Semi-Pro' and teach Myers a lesson in diminishing returns. And for the record: Wall-E looks robo-tastic. Yeah, I said it.
Comment #53 (Posted by TheClassic)
It's interesting that you put down the women who will probably go to a movie that at least thinks women are important, as Sex and the City and its movie does. Its hard enough to find a movie where women interact with other women in an earnest fashion, and talk about things other than men. This is disappointing, true, but what else does this summer have to offer? Love interests with a high erection-factor?
Comment #54 (Posted by Terry)
Having seen Iron Man, I can't imagine it being anything else than this year's M:I:III. Mindless, unbalanced actioner with silly humor and a terrible pace. The very same faults you found with Speed Racer (the aggressive marketing), Hulk 2 ("if a room full of screaming geeks meant anything to a film's financial prospects, Serenity would've been the next Titanic!
"... works with that one too), Hancock (tone issues? Wait till you see Downey/Paltrow's "chemistry") and Indy IV (negative word of mouth: fans will feel robbed with this action movie with no thrills, and spy flick with no spies...) apply tenfold to Favreau's film.
Except for your (undeserved) vote of confidence for IM and the lack of love for Dr Jones, I think you pretty much got it right. Wait and see...
Comment #55 (Posted by Summertime (Remix))
Cool shit. Give Beaks a raise, cuz this column was the bomb! Hulk higher, Iron Man lower. And Wanted n' Love Guru way the fuck out.
